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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources
arXiv2014

Smile from the Past: A general option pricing framework with multiple volatility and leverage components

In the current literature, the analytical tractability of discrete time option pricing models is guaranteed only for rather specific types of models and pricing kernels. We propose a very general and fully analytical option pricing framework, encompassing a wide class of discrete time models featuring multiple-component structure in both volatility and leverage, and a flexible pricing kernel with multiple risk premia. Although the proposed framework is general enough to include either GARCH-type volatility, Realized Volatility or a combination of the two, in this paper we focus on realized volatility option pricing models by extending the Heterogeneous Autoregressive Gamma (HARG) model of Corsi, Fusari, La Vecchia (2012) to incorporate heterogeneous leverage structures with multiple components, while preserving closed-form solutions for option prices. Applying our analytically tractable asymmetric HARG model to a large sample of S&P 500 index options, we demonstrate its superior ability to price out-of-the-money options compared to existing benchmarks.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2014

Stochastic Spot/Volatility Correlation in Stochastic Volatility Models and Barrier Option Pricing

Most models for barrier pricing are designed to let a market maker tune the model-implied covariance between moves in the asset spot price and moves in the implied volatility skew. This is often implemented with a local volatility/stochastic volatility mixture model, where the mixture parameter tunes that covariance. This paper defines an alternate model where the spot/volatility correlation is a separate mean-reverting stochastic variable which is itself correlated with spot. We also develop an efficient approximation for barrier option and one touch pricing in the model based on semi-static vega replication and compare it with Monte Carlo pricing. The approximation works well in markets where the risk neutral drift is modest.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2014

On small-noise equations with degenerate limiting system arising from volatility models

The one-dimensional SDE with non Lipschitz diffusion coefficient $dX_{t} = b(X_{t})dt + σX_{t}^γ dB_{t}, \ X_{0}=x, \ γ<1$ is widely studied in mathematical finance. Several works have proposed asymptotic analysis of densities and implied volatilities in models involving instances of this equation, based on a careful implementation of saddle-point methods and (essentially) the explicit knowledge of Fourier transforms. Recent research on tail asymptotics for heat kernels [J-D. Deuschel, P.~Friz, A.~Jacquier, and S.~Violante. Marginal density expansions for diffusions and stochastic volatility, part II: Applications. 2013, arxiv:1305.6765] suggests to work with the rescaled variable $X^{\varepsilon}:=\varepsilon^{1/(1-γ)} X$: while allowing to turn a space asymptotic problem into a small-$\varepsilon$ problem with fixed terminal point, the process $X^{\varepsilon}$ satisfies a SDE in Wentzell--Freidlin form (i.e. with driving noise $\varepsilon dB$). We prove a pathwise large deviation principle for the process $X^{\varepsilon}$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$. As it will become clear, the limiting ODE governing the large deviations admits infinitely many solutions, a non-standard situation in the Wentzell--Freidlin theory. As for applications, the $\varepsilon$-scaling allows to derive exact log-asymptotics for path functionals of the process: while on the one hand the resulting formulae are confirmed by the CIR-CEV benchmarks, on the other hand the large deviation approach (i) applies to equations with a more general drift term and (ii) potentially opens the way to heat kernel analysis for higher-dimensional diffusions involving such an SDE as a component.

math.PR↗
arXiv2014

Expected Cash Flow: A Novel Model Of Evaluating Financial Assets

The present paper provides the basis for a novel financial asset pricing model that could avoid the shortcomings of, or even completely replace the traditional DCF model. The model is based on Brownian motion logic and expected future cash flow values. It can be very useful for Islamic Finance.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2014

Incorporating a Volatility Smile into the Markov-Functional Model

We study a Markov-Functional (MF) interest-rate model with Uncertain Volatility Displaced Diffusion (UVDD) digital mapping, which is consistent with the volatility-smile phenomenon observed in the option market. We first check the impact of pricing Bermudan swaptions by the model. Next, we also investigate the future smiles implied by the MF models and the smile dynamics implied by the UVDD model. Finally, we conduct hedging simulations against Bermudan swaptions to test extensively the hedge performance of this smile-consistenet MF model.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2014

Nonlinear Valuation under Collateral, Credit Risk and Funding Costs: A Numerical Case Study Extending Black-Scholes

We develop an arbitrage-free framework for consistent valuation of derivative trades with collateralization, counterparty credit gap risk, and funding costs, following the approach first proposed by Pallavicini and co-authors in 2011. Based on the risk-neutral pricing principle, we derive a general pricing equation where Credit, Debit, Liquidity and Funding Valuation Adjustments (CVA, DVA, LVA and FVA) are introduced by simply modifying the payout cash-flows of the deal. Funding costs and specific close-out procedures at default break the bilateral nature of the deal price and render the valuation problem a non-linear and recursive one. CVA and FVA are in general not really additive adjustments, and the risk for double counting is concrete. We introduce a new adjustment, called a Non-linearity Valuation Adjustment (NVA), to address double-counting. The theoretical risk free rate disappears from our final equations. The framework can be tailored also to CCP trading under initial and variation margins, as explained in detail in Brigo and Pallavicini (2014). In particular, we allow for asymmetric collateral and funding rates, replacement close-out and re-hypothecation. The valuation equation takes the form of a backward stochastic differential equation or semi-linear partial differential equation, and can be cast as a set of iterative equations that can be solved by least-squares Monte Carlo. We propose such a simulation algorithm in a case study involving a generalization of the benchmark model of Black and Scholes for option pricing. Our numerical results confirm that funding risk has a non-trivial impact on the deal price, and that double counting matters too. We conclude the article with an analysis of large scale implications of non-linearity of the pricing equations.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2014

A Polynomial Scheme of Asymptotic Expansion for Backward SDEs and Option pricing

A new asymptotic expansion scheme for backward SDEs (BSDEs) is proposed.The perturbation parameter is introduced just to scale the forward stochastic variables within a BSDE. In contrast to the standard small-diffusion asymptotic expansion method, the dynamics of variables given by the forward SDEs is treated exactly. Although it requires a special form of the quadratic covariation terms of the continuous part, it allows rather generic drift as well as jump components to exist. The resultant approximation is given by a polynomial function in terms of the unperturbed forward variables whose coefficients are uniquely specified by the solution of the recursive system of linear ODEs. Applications to a jump-extended Heston and lambda-SABR models for European contingent claims, as well as the utility-optimization problem in the presence of a terminal liability are discussed.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2015

MVA: Initial Margin Valuation Adjustment by Replication and Regression

Initial margin requirements are becoming an increasingly common feature of derivative markets. However, while the valuation of derivatives under collateralisation (Piterbarg 2010, Piterbarg2012), under counterparty risk with unsecured funding costs (FVA) (Burgard2011, Burgard2011, Burgard2013) and in the presence of regulatory capital (KVA) (Green2014) are established through valuation adjustments, hitherto initial margin has not been considered. This paper further extends the semi-replication framework of (Burgard2013a), itself later extended by (Green2014), to cover the cost of initial margin, leading to Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA). Initial margin requirements are typically generated through the use of VAR or CVAR models. Given the form of MVA as an integral over the expected initial margin profile this would lead to excessive computational costs if a brute force calculation were to be used. Hence we also propose a computationally efficient approach to the calculation of MVA through the use of regression techniques, Longstaff-Schwartz Augmented Compression (LSAC).

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2014

KVA: Capital Valuation Adjustment

Credit (CVA), Debit (DVA) and Funding Valuation Adjustments (FVA) are now familiar valuation adjustments made to the value of a portfolio of derivatives to account for credit risks and funding costs. However, recent changes in the regulatory regime and the increases in regulatory capital requirements has led many banks to include the cost of capital in derivative pricing. This paper formalises the addition of cost of capital by extending the Burgard-Kjaer (2013) semi-replication approach to CVA and FVA to include an addition capital term, Capital Valuation Adjustment (KVA, i.e. Kapital Valuation Adjustment to distinguish from CVA.) The utilization of the capital for funding purposes is also considered. The use of the semi-replication approach means that the flexibility around the treatment of self-default is carried over into this analysis. The paper further considers the practical calculation of KVA with reference to the Basel II (BCBS-128) and Basel III (BCBS-189) capital regimes and their implementation via CRD IV. The paper also assesses how KVA may be hedged, given that any hedging transactions themselves lead to regulatory capital requirements and hence capital costs. Finally a number of numerical examples are presented to gauge the cost impact of KVA on vanilla derivative products.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2014

Hedging of equity-linked with maximal success factor

We consider an equity-linked contract whose payoff depends on the lifetime of policy holder and the stock price. We assume the limited capital for hedging and we provide with the best strategy for an insurance company in the meaning of so called succes factor $\IE^\IP\left[{\mathbf 1}_{\{V_T \geq D)}+{\mathbf 1}_{\{V_T < D\}}\frac{V_T}{D}\right ]$, where $V_T$ denotes the end value of strategy and $D$ is the payoff of the contract. The work is a genaralisation of the work of Föllmer and Schied \cite{FS2004} and Klusik and Palmowski \cite{KluPal}, but it considers much more general "incompletness" of the market, among others midterm nonmarket information signals and infitite nonmarket scenarios.

q-fin.RM↗
arXiv2014

Market risk modelling in Solvency II regime and hedging options not using underlying

In the paper we develop mathematical tools of quantile hedging in incomplete market. Those could be used for two significant applications: o calculating the \textbf{optimal capital requirement imposed by Solvency II} (Directive 2009/138/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council) when the market and non-market risk is present in insurance company. We show hot to find the minimal capital $V_0$ to provide with the one-year hedging strategy for insurance company satisfying $E\left[{\mathbf 1}_{\{V_1 \geq D\}}\right]=0.995$, where $V_1$ denotes the value of insurance company in one year time and $D$ is the payoff of the contract. o finding a hedging strategy for derivative not using underlying but an asset with dynamics correlated or in some other way dependent (no deterministically) on underlying. The work is a generalisation of the work of Klusik and Palmowski \cite{KluPal}. Keywords: quantile hedging, solvency II, capital modelling, hedging options on nontradable asset.

q-fin.RM↗
arXiv2015

Affine LIBOR models with multiple curves: theory, examples and calibration

We introduce a multiple curve framework that combines tractable dynamics and semi-analytic pricing formulas with positive interest rates and basis spreads. Negatives rates and positive spreads can also be accommodated in this framework. The dynamics of OIS and LIBOR rates are specified following the methodology of the affine LIBOR models and are driven by the wide and flexible class of affine processes. The affine property is preserved under forward measures, which allows us to derive Fourier pricing formulas for caps, swaptions and basis swaptions. A model specification with dependent LIBOR rates is developed, that allows for an efficient and accurate calibration to a system of caplet prices.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2014

Risk Neutral Option Pricing With Neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets

Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both more robust, more consistent, and more rigorous than held in the economics literature. We also show that options can be priced using infinite variance (finite mean) distributions.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2015

Simple examples of pure-jump strict local martingales

We present simple new examples of pure-jump strict local martingales. The examples are constructed as exponentials of self-exciting affine Markov processes. We characterize the strict local martingale property of these processes by an integral criterion and by non-uniqueness of an associated ordinary differential equation. Finally we show an alternative construction for our examples by an absolutely continuous measure change in the spirit of (Delbaen and Schachermayer, PTRF 1995).

math.PR↗
arXiv2014

Arbitrage Pricing of Multi-person Game Contingent Claims

We introduce a class of financial contracts involving several parties by extending the notion of a two-person game option (see Kifer (2000)) to a contract in which an arbitrary number of parties is involved and each of them is allowed to make a wide array of decisions at any time, not restricted to simply `exercising the option'. The collection of decisions by all parties then determines the contract's settlement date as well as the terminal payoff for each party. We provide sufficient conditions under which a multi-person game option has a unique arbitrage price, which is additive with respect to any partition of the contract.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2016

Local martingale deflators for asset processes stopped at a default time $S^τ$ or right before $S^{τ-}$

Let $\mathbb{F}\subset \mathbb{G}$ be two filtrations and $S$ be a $\mathbb{F}$ semimartingale possessing a $\mathbb{F}$ local martingale deflator. Consider $τ$ a $\mathbb{G}$ stopping time. We study the problem whether $S^{τ-}$ or $S^τ$ can have $\mathbb{G}$ local martingale deflators. A suitable theoretical framework is set up in this paper, within which necessary/sufficient conditions for the problem to be solved have been proved. Under these conditions, we will construct $\mathbb{G}$ local martingale deflators for $S^{τ-}$ or for $S^τ$. Among others, it is proved that $\mathbb{G}$ local martingale deflators are multiples of $\mathbb{F}$ local martingale deflators, with a multiplicator coming from the multiplicative decomposition of the Azéma supermartingale of $τ$. The proofs of the necessary/sufficient conditions require various results to be established about Azéma supermartingale, about local martingale deflator, about filtration enlargement, which are interesting in themselves. Our study is based on a filtration enlargement setting. For applications, it is important to have a method to infer the existence of such setting from the knowledge of the market information. This question is discussed at the end of the paper.

q-fin.PR↗
arXiv2014

Convergence in Multiscale Financial Models with Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility

We consider stochastic control systems affected by a fast mean reverting volatility $Y(t)$ driven by a pure jump Lévy process. Motivated by a large literature on financial models, we assume that $Y(t)$ evolves at a faster time scale $\frac{t}{\varepsilon}$ than the assets, and we study the asymptotics as $\varepsilon\to 0$. This is a singular perturbation problem that we study mostly by PDE methods within the theory of viscosity solutions.

math.PR↗