SEARCH · Search arXiv

Results for “econ.TH”

Search indexed arXiv papers on artificial intelligence, large language models, computer vision and robotics. Read source abstracts and follow links to arXiv.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

146 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

A computational approach to maximum likelihood thresholds for colored Gaussian graphical models

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are essential tools for interpretable structure learning. However, in high-dimensional, small-sample regimes, the available data is often insufficient for the maximum likelihood estimator to exist. Colored Gaussian graphical models (CGGMs) mitigate this limitation by imposing symmetry constraints through graph coloring, which reduces the required sample size. This minimal number of observations needed to guarantee that the estimator exists almost surely is defined as the maximum likelihood threshold (MLT). Here, we address the computation of the MLT for CGGMs by focusing on its geometric formulation: finding the minimum rank of a sample covariance matrix such that its projection lies almost surely within the interior of the cone of sufficient statistics. We establish a unified theoretical framework, extending results from uncolored to colored models and introducing new symbolic algorithms. Furthermore, we present a computational study integrating sampling with topological data analysis (TDA) to investigate the local geometry of the cone of sufficient statistics. Our results demonstrate the potential of TDA to overcome the computational bottlenecks of traditional symbolic algebraic methods, particularly Groebner basis computations, in analyzing the likelihood geometry of CGGMs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Equivalence of Fixed-Rank and Rank-One Even-Order Symmetric Tensor Factorization

In the recent work of Barbier, Ko, and the second present author on sublinear-rank symmetric matrix factorization [Math. Stat. Learn. 9 (2026), 1-68], a key result is that, in the Bayes-optimal setting, the large-size limit of the free entropy of the finite-rank spiked Wigner model is the same as in the rank-one case when the signal has centered i.i.d. entries. In this paper, we show that this rank-one equivalence result extends to the case of finite-rank, even-order, symmetric tensor factorization. Moreover, we give a natural reformulation of a hypothesis that was stated in the aforementioned work to be necessary for this result. As in the matrix case, we use information-theoretic identities and replica symmetry to reduce a known multi-dimensional variational formula for the limiting free entropy to its one-dimensional analog. The novelty stems from the fact that said formula involves a replica symmetric potential containing Hadamard (entrywise) powers, rather than squares, of the matrix-valued variational parameter, so the eigenvalue-based approach used in the matrix case must be adjusted.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2026

Geometric Ergodicity of Affine Invariant Ensemble Langevin and its Discrete Time Variants

Affine-invariant ensemble samplers are widely used in Bayesian applications. However, their quantitative convergence theory, in particular geometric ergodicity, remains a basic open question. We study the affine invariant ensemble Langevin dynamics, an interacting particle system that uses the empirical covariance of the whole ensemble as a preconditioner. While effective in practice, theoretical understanding of this method is not available beyond plain qualitative convergence in total variation; a central difficulty is that the empirical covariance can approach singularity. This paper addresses this challenge. For potentials with bounded Hessian that are strongly convex outside a ball, we prove geometric ergodicity using a novel Lyapunov function that combines an inverse-covariance barrier with a coercive exponential energy. We then show that directly applying the Euler--Maruyama scheme can diverge with positive probability, even for a one-dimensional Gaussian target. This motivates a covariance-trace time regularization. We prove geometric ergodicity of the regularized diffusion and, for sufficiently small step size, of its unadjusted Euler--Maruyama discretization. We also show that the invariant distributions of the discretization converge weakly to the product target distribution as the step size tends to zero.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Spectral Convergence of Random Feature Method in Multiple Dimensions

We first prove spectral convergence of the random feature method (RFM) for multidimensional targets in Sobolev, Gevrey, ultra-analytic, and bandlimited classes. The analysis establishes general high-probability approximation estimates in the interpolation scale generated by a kernel integral operator. On a single event determined only by the sampled features, one random space approximates every target in a prescribed source ball; moreover, for each target, a single coefficient vector defines an approximant that attains spectral accuracy simultaneously in all admissible error norms. For both regularity-adapted frequency distributions and uniform distributions on growing frequency windows, the resulting rates range from super-exponential to algebraic, depending on the regularity of the target. Second, we establish abstract error estimates for strong- and weak-form RFM discretizations, thereby converting the preceding approximation bounds into convergence estimates for multidimensional second-order elliptic boundary value and eigenvalue problems. Finally, for random feature matrices (RFMtxs), we prove super-exponential singular-value decay with Fourier features and exponential decay with $\tanh$ features, together with corresponding condition-number lower bounds. The analysis identifies a common mechanism: the same spectral approximation that yields high accuracy also drives severe ill-conditioning.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Differentially Private Model-X Knockoffs via Johnson-Lindenstrauss Transform

We introduce a novel privatization framework for high-dimensional controlled variable selection. Our framework enables rigorous False Discovery Rate (FDR) control under differential privacy constraints. While the Model-X knockoff procedure provides FDR guarantees by constructing provably exchangeable ``negative control" features, existing privacy mechanisms like Gaussian noise injection disrupt its core exchangeability conditions. In this work we consider privatizing the data knockoff matrix through Johnson--Lindenstrauss Transform (JLT), a dimension reduction technique that simultaneously preserves covariate relationships through approximate isometry for $(ε,δ)$-differential privacy. We theoretically characterize both FDR and the power of the proposed private variable selection procedure asymptotically. Our theoretical analysis characterizes the role of different factors, such as the privacy parameters, sample size, and feature dimension, in shaping the privacy-power trade-off. Our analysis is based on a novel `debiasing technique' for high-dimensional private knockoff procedure. We further establish sufficient conditions under which the power of the proposed procedure converges to one. This work bridges two critical paradigms---knockoff-based FDR control and private data release. Our analysis demonstrates that structural privacy preservation through random projections outperforms the classical noise addition mechanism, maintaining statistical power even under strict privacy budgets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Discrete Gromov-Wasserstein Duality: Algorithms and Isomorphism Testing

The Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) distance provides a principled framework for aligning metric measure (mm) spaces based solely on their intrinsic structure. Its ability to identify isomorphic representations of distributions across spaces renders it valuable for comparing data where equality up to isomorphism occurs naturally such as in graphs or, more generally, distributions on graphs. Recently, a type of dual form for the GW distance between Euclidean distributions with the squared Euclidean or inner product costs was derived, spurring the development of new statistical and algorithmic results for this setting. This work furnishes a novel duality result for GW distances with and without entropic regularization that is applicable to all finitely supported mm spaces. Leveraging this result, we derive the sample complexity of empirical GW distances between finite mm spaces, as well as limit distributions under proper centering and scaling. Furthermore, we propose new algorithms for solving the regularized GW problem which are subject to formal convergence guarantees. These statistical and algorithmic advancements give rise to a principled and efficient framework for testing whether two distributions on the set of graphs with a fixed number of nodes are isomorphic based on samples.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

On the Abundance of Critical Points of the t-SNE Energy

This paper considers the energy landscape of the t-SNE algorithm. While this algorithm has enjoyed broad adoption, the non-convexity of the associated energy has made it difficult to rigorously understand what the algorithm captures in many settings. In particular, a number of well-known numerical examples, several of which are reproduced in this article, suggest a complicated energy landscape with many local minimizers that do not respect the topology or clustering structure of the underlying data. This work seeks to provide first steps towards a rigorous explanation of these phenomena. Specifically, for a general family of energies, which include both the original t-SNE algorithm and recently identified large data limits, and for densities in feature space which obey a continuous symmetry, we construct infinite families of distinct critical points. These critical points are based upon identifying pairs of discrete symmetries, one in the original feature space and the other in the target embedding space, which are preserved under gradient dynamics. These critical configurations exhibit many characteristics, such as topology breaking and spurious clustering, which are often observed empirically. Finally, numerical and analytical examples are given throughout as a means of illustrating the approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Statistical Inference for Privatized Data with Unknown Sample Size

We develop both theory and algorithms to analyze privatized data in unbounded differential privacy (DP), where even the sample size is considered a sensitive quantity that requires privacy protection. We show that the distance between the sampling distributions under unbounded DP and bounded DP goes to zero as the sample size $n$ goes to infinity, provided that the noise used to privatize $n$ is at an appropriate rate; we also establish that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC)-type posterior distributions converge under similar assumptions. We further give asymptotic results in regimes where the privacy budgets vary, establishing similarity of sampling distributions as well as showing that the MLE in the unbounded setting converges to the bounded-DP MLE. To facilitate valid, finite-sample Bayesian inference on privatized data under unbounded DP, we propose a reversible jump MCMC algorithm which extends the data augmentation MCMC of Ju et al. (2022). We also propose a Monte Carlo EM algorithm to compute the MLE from privatized data in both bounded and unbounded DP. We apply our methodology to analyze a linear regression model as well as a 2019 American Time Use Survey Microdata File which we model using a Dirichlet distribution.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

The Price of Sparsity: Sufficient Conditions for Sparse Recovery using Sparse and Sparsified Measurements

We consider the problem of support recovery for sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian measurement matrices we identify sufficient conditions on the minimal sample size for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime $ds/p \to \infty$, where $p$ denotes the signal dimension, $s$ the number of non-zero components of the signal, and $d$ the expected number of non-zero components per row of measurement. Combined with known lower bounds, this yields an information-theoretic threshold of order $s\log(p/s) / \log(ds/p)$, making explicit the price of measurement sparsity. In particular, we highlight a regime where the sample-complexity loss from measurement sparsity is logarithmic while the computational gain is nearly linear. Second, we study recovery after sparsifying an originally dense Gaussian design: the observations are generated from the dense design, while estimation uses an independently sparsified design and a rescaled response. In the proportional regime $s=αp$, $d=ψp$, we prove that, for every fixed target error level $δ$ and every slack $\varepsilon>0$, a sample size of order $p/ψ^2$ is sufficient for support recovery for arbitrarily small $ψ$.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Online simultaneous inference for quantiles via smoothed stochastic gradient descent

This paper considers the estimation of quantiles via a smoothed version of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. By smoothing the score function with a bandwidth tied to the learning rate, we obtain estimates that are monotone in the quantile level at every iteration, while retaining the memory and computational efficiency required for streaming data. We establish non-asymptotic tail probability bounds for the smoothed estimate with and without Polyak-Ruppert averaging, which are sub-exponential with a multi-regime structure. For the averaged estimate we further derive a Bahadur representation that is uniform in the quantile level and across coordinates, and a resulting Gaussian approximation by the maximum of Brownian bridges, with the dimension $p$ allowed to grow exponentially in the sample size. This yields simultaneous inference across coordinates and quantile levels. As an alternative that avoids estimating the sparsity function, we propose an online multiplier bootstrap that preserves monotonicity, runs in a single pass and is asymptotically valid. Extending the theory to a localized recursion, we obtain online nonparametric conditional quantile estimates with uniform bands over design points and quantile levels. Simulations confirm accurate finite-sample coverage, and we illustrate the method on conditional value-at-risk curves.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Probabilistic Symbolic Regression for Equation Discovery via Operator-induced and Regularized Symbolic Forests

Symbolic regression has emerged as a powerful tool for artificial intelligence-driven scientific discovery by learning interpretable analytical expressions that reveal governing relationships directly from data. Existing methods, however, often rely on heuristic search, struggle to balance predictive accuracy with expression complexity in noisy settings, and offer limited characterization of symbolic uncertainty. Probabilistic approaches that address these challenges in a unified manner remain underexplored. We introduce a probabilistic symbolic regression framework that represents mathematical expressions as ensembles of symbolic trees. A regularizing prior over tree topology controls expression complexity, while an Occam's window-based posterior summary captures uncertainty across multiple plausible symbolic models. Given the limited existing theoretical treatment of symbolic regression, we develop posterior concentration guarantees when symbolic expressions approximate the underlying relationship arbitrarily well, with a near-parametric rate when an exact finite formula exists. Additionally, we establish a sharp oracle concentration result under symbolic misspecification. Comparisons of our proposed framework with state-of-the-art competitors demonstrate superior predictive accuracy, optimal symbolic complexity, and stable structural recovery when learning benchmark scientific equations, together with the identification of scientifically interpretable descriptor formulas in a challenging materials discovery application.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Error exponents of quantum state discrimination with composite correlated hypotheses

We study the error exponents in quantum hypothesis testing between two sets of quantum states, extending the analysis beyond the independent and identically distributed case to encompass composite correlated hypotheses. In particular, we introduce and compare two natural extensions of the quantum Hoeffding divergence and anti-divergence to sets of quantum states, establishing their equivalence or quantitative relations. In the error exponent regime, we generalize the quantum Hoeffding bound to stable sequences of convex, compact sets of quantum states, demonstrating that the optimal Type-I error exponent, under an exponential constraint on the Type-II error, is precisely characterized by the regularized quantum Hoeffding divergence between the sets. In the strong converse exponent regime, we establish a general lower bound on the exponent in terms of the regularized quantum Hoeffding anti-divergence, and we prove a matching upper bound when the null hypothesis is a singleton, under additional assumptions. The generality of these results enables applications in various contexts, including (i) refining the generalized quantum Stein's lemma by [Fang, Fawzi & Fawzi, 2024]; (ii) exhibiting counterexamples to the continuity of the regularized Petz Renyi divergence and Hoeffding divergence; (iii) obtaining error exponents for adversarial channel discrimination and resource detection problems.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2026

Quadratic Point Estimate Method for Uncertainty Quantification with Dependent Non-Gaussian Inputs

As an extension of the Point Estimate Method (PEM) to evaluate probabilistic moments of quantities of interest (QoI) in general $n$-dimensional spaces, the Quadratic Point Estimate Method (QPEM) has been recently developed. This new method is defined to fully represent up to fifth-order input moments in the Gaussian space, providing general analytical expressions for sample locations and weights, without requiring any numerical optimization. The QPEM can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the output QoI moments, in relation to PEM-based methods whose numbers of sigma points grow linearly with the problem dimension, while at the same time having an affordable and competitive computational cost up to a considerable number of dimensions. The QPEM is further enhanced in this work by enabling copula integration into the framework, which enables effective modeling of the joint input probability density function by estimating marginals and the dependence structure of the involved random variables. The validity and efficient performance of the copula-based QPEM are showcased against numerous other sampling methods in various examples considering two practical scenarios: (i) when the joint dependence structure can be inferred from data, and (ii) when only marginal distributions and correlation matrices are known.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

A complete characterization of sequential testability and change detectability in i.i.d. models

We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of power-one sequential tests in an i.i.d. composite testing problem. A level-$α$ test with power one against every alternative exists if and only if the alternatives are separated from the null by a countable family of finite-block events. We provide other equivalent conditions using randomized fixed-sample tests, bounded finite-block scores, e-processes, reduced-filtration test supermartingales, and a countable cover whose finite-block weak-$*$ closed convex hulls are positively separated in total variation. As a bonus, the constructive proof yields tests have pointwise expected sample size $O_Q(\log(1/α))$. Exactly the same conditions also characterize i.i.d.\ change detectability under optional-horizon average-run-length control: for every $η>0$, they are equivalent to an alarm family $(T_γ)_{γ\ge1}$ satisfying $\Prob_{P^\infty}(T_γ\leσ)\le \E_{P^\infty}σ/γ$ for every null law and every stopping time $σ$. In fact, when these conditions hold, we can construct a single e-detector such that every null-law average run length lies between $γ$ and $(1+η)γ+1$, and having robust Lorden delay $O_Q(\logγ)$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Low-rank matrix recovery landscapes beyond RIP with application to rank-one measurements

We study the problem of low-rank matrix recovery from linear measurements via the global nonconvex landscape of a low-rank factored formulation of the matrix LASSO (nuclear-norm--regularized least-squares). If the landscape is benign, that is, has no bad local optima, then practical and scalable algorithms can compute good statistical estimates. Previous state-of-the-art landscape guarantees have typically assumed that the linear measurement operator has the restricted isometry property, that is, the operator is approximately an isometry over all low-rank matrices. This is an unrealistic assumption for many applications; in particular, when the individual measurement matrices are themselves low-rank, we typically have poor upper isometry constants. To overcome this, we establish new guarantees of a benign landscape under a weaker isometry condition: rather than requiring upper isometry over all low-rank matrices, we only require it over the linear low-rank tangent space to the low-rank ground truth matrix. To illustrate the utility of this result, we apply it to the problem of matrix recovery from random rank-one linear measurements; via high-probability concentration bounds on the random measurement operator, we prove a novel landscape guarantee with statistically near-optimal sample complexity and recovery error.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

The EM-algorithm and the Method of Moments in Softmax Mixture Models

Softmax Mixture Models (SMMs) are discrete $K$-component mixture models for the probabilities of selecting one of $p$ candidate feature vectors $X_1,\ldots,X_p\in\mathbb{R}^L$ in heterogeneous populations and are widely used in econometrics and scientific applications. Related softmax mixture mechanisms also appear in modern LLM architectures. We provide a theoretical and methodological study of SMMs, focusing on the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and the Method of Moments (MoM). We show that EM recovers the mixture atoms at the parametric rate, up to logarithmic factors, after $\mathcal{O}(\log N)$ iterations, provided atom separation is at least of order $\log K$. This improves on separation conditions in existing analyses of EM for high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures. We also develop MoM procedures for parameter and subspace estimation. Although MoM parameter estimates converge more slowly than EM and can deteriorate with $K$, they provide provable warm starts for EM and are useful for small $K$. For general $K$, we estimate the atom subspace via MoM and recommend running EM from multiple random initializations within this subspace. Finally, as $p\to\infty$, we show that SMMs approximate mixtures of exponential tilts of the feature distribution, yielding asymptotic identifiability.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Generalized Splines and Gaussian Processes

For finite-dimensional linear inverse problems where the variables are Gaussian, it is well-known that the minimum-mean-square error estimator takes the form of a regularized least-squares data fit. In this chapter, we show that this equivalence extends to a much broader infinite-dimensional setting where generalized splines take the role of linear regressors and generalized Gaussian processes on a nuclear space $S$ are the counterpart of Gaussian random vectors. The scope of this extension is of the same nature as the switch from the classic notion of function to that of a distribution, also known as a "generalized function." Our formalism involves a whitening/regularization operator $L: S\to S'$ whose continuous extension induces a native Hilbert space $H\subset S'$ that plays a central role in our characterization. The presentation is self-contained for the most part and remarkably general and powerful. It allows for the recovery of all known instances of such equivalences; in particular, the methods involving innovations and reproducing-kernel Hilbert spaces developed by Kailath and his students, and the mathematical correspondence between fractional splines and Mandelbrot's fractional Brownian motion (fractals), with the former being the optimal estimators of the latter. It also covers general Bayesian methods for the resolution of infinite-dimensional inverse problems.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Learning Representations through Token Prediction: Geometry, Approximation, and Downstream Guarantees

Token prediction is a central pre-training objective for modern language models. Despite its empirical success, why token prediction learns broadly useful representations remains incompletely understood. We develop a statistical framework connecting token prediction with representation geometry, encoder approximation, and downstream performance. Under a softmax prediction head, we show that accurate token prediction organizes token embeddings according to similarities between the distributions of contexts in which different token types appear, as measured by Hellinger distance, with explicit errors governed by prediction accuracy and token frequency. Meanwhile, the contextual representation provides a low-dimensional coordinate for the conditional distribution of the target token relative to these embeddings. We further introduce a self-consistency principle showing that repeated applications of a shared representation block can progressively refine the contextual representation without introducing additional block parameters. Among representations with the same prediction accuracy, this recurrent construction favors those that can be stably reconstructed from their contexts. Finally, we establish downstream guarantees for token generation, token community recovery, and classification by a linear probe, showing how prediction accuracy and recovered geometry translate into performance beyond the pre-training objective. Together, these results explain how the simple objective of predicting tokens can recover semantic geometry and produce broadly useful representations. A controlled simulation illustrates the theoretical mechanisms.

stat.ML↗