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330 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

I-FLOP: Fast Learning of Order and Parents from Interventional Data

We extend the FLOP (fast learning of order and parents) algorithm recently proposed by Wienöbst et al. (2026) from observational to interventional data. In particular, we use the interventional BIC score of Hauser and Bühlmann (2012), adapting it to be used with the iterative Cholesky-based score updates that are partly responsible for FLOP's speed. We show that, in the sample limit, I-FLOP recovers a DAG in the same interventional Markov equivalence class as the data-generating DAG. We compare I-FLOP to existing causal structure learning algorithms on real and simulated interventional data, where it performs favorably in terms of both performance and run time.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Content Exploration Beyond the Feed: Creator Supply and the Shared Corpus

Industrial recommenders give new content initial views through budgeted exploration, then use early performance to decide further delivery. On many short-video platforms, exploration is the primary way new videos reach viewers. Viewer-side tests measure consumption; the published budget objectives we review omit creator response. We analyze four experiments on a major short-video platform. An eight-month creator ablation finds production exploration raises videos posted per creator by 8.55% and creators posting at least once by 7.10% relative to a minimal floor. A budget-matched reallocation raises creator participation with no detectable short-run viewer-side change. A year-long viewer ablation finds 1.74% more video views but 2.13% less view time. A delivered view creates immediate feed value, can trigger organic take-up, and can induce creator supply. Take-up and supply replenish a shared corpus, creating two measurement limits. Viewer-side A/B tests cancel the corpus effect when both arms consume the same corpus. Giving each arm its own corpus avoids cancellation, but turnover still controls the horizon. If the corpus turns over at rate w per posting cycle, a t-cycle experiment expresses at most wt of the eventual corpus effect. More users reduce noise but do not speed turnover. Before the corpus path visibly bends, data cannot distinguish a modest fast effect from an arbitrarily large slow one, so a valid confidence interval may lack a finite upper endpoint. As predicted, the three-week co-diverted experiment cannot determine the sign of the eventual corpus effect. Within the window, it identifies the direct feed effect, and an exploratory cohort analysis detects organic lift after exploration ends. The experiments establish a positive creator response, measure the gross corpus flow visible within three weeks, and show the design and duration needed to identify total value.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

FedSPDnet: Geometry-Aware Federated Deep Learning with SPDnet

We introduce two federated learning frameworks for the classical SPDnet model operating on symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices with Stiefel-constrained parameters. Unlike standard Euclidean averaging, which violates orthogonality, our approach preserves geometric structure through two efficient aggregation strategies: ProjAvg, projecting arithmetic means onto the Stiefel manifold, and RLAvg, approximating tangent-space averaging via retractions and liftings. Both methods are computationally efficient, independent of the optimizer, and enable scalable federated learning for signal processing applications whose features are SPD matrices. Simulations on EEG motor imagery benchmarks show that FedSPDnet outperforms federated EEGnet in F1 score and robustness to federation and partial participation, while using fewer parameters per communication round.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Test of partial effects for Frechet regression on Bures-Wasserstein manifolds

We propose a novel test for assessing partial effects in Fréchet regression with responses lying on the Bures-Wasserstein manifold. Under the null hypothesis, we show that the statistic admits a degenerate V-statistic approximation whose limiting distribution is a weighted mixture of chi-squared random variables, with weights determined by the eigenvalues of an integral operator associated with a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) kernel. We establish the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Its finite-sample performance is examined through simulation studies. We apply the proposed test to study the effect of age, while controlling for other covariates, on gene co-expression structure in single-cell data.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Diagonal Multi-omics Integration of Heterogeneous Datasets

In this paper, we consider methods for the diagonal multi-omics integration of heterogeneous datasets. Several approaches to the nature of biological heterogeneity are analyzed and developed to comprehend more clearly the generated differences. Specifically, the extremal trace problems for the coupled Laplacian on sets homeomorphic to the Stiefel manifold embedded in the complex Euclidean space are investigated. The gradient ascent method for the maximization problem is elaborated in the classical terms of functional analysis, which is of significant interest in itself. On this basis, we introduce a novel characteristic of dataset heterogeneity by employing the norm of the difference between the maximum and minimum points.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Percolation Dynamics in Optimization : Variance Cascades and Discrete Scale Invariance

We study the dynamics of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), which is known to steer deep neural networks toward invariant sets that correspond to simpler subnetworks. How this steering unfolds over time remains poorly understood. We answer this by modeling the stochastic gradient flow (SGF) as a percolation process, in which architectural symmetries force subnetworks to merge in discrete simultaneous blocks rather than one at a time. These structural transitions register as variance spikes in a macroscopic order parameter, echoing physical phase transitions. We further show this trapping mechanism and its associated scaling cascade extend to Adam and AdamW under an explicit heavy-tailed noise model.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

The Value of Depth in Message Passing on Sparse Graphs: A Kesten-Stigum Dichotomy

How deep does a graph neural network need to be on a sparse graph? We study its purest statistical form: node classification on the sparse contextual stochastic block model (CSBM) with average degree $Δ=O(1)$, whose local weak limit is a broadcast-labelled Poisson Galton-Watson tree. Prior work derived a message-passing classifier $h_\ell$ that aggregates from each vertex at distance $k\le\ell$ the attenuated evidence $2\operatorname{artanh}(γ^k t(X_v))$, with $γ$ the edge signal and $t$ a bounded likelihood-ratio transform of the feature. We prove that the value of depth is governed by a single number, the Kesten-Stigum ratio $κ=γ^2Δ$. Below the threshold ($κ<1$), the error sequence is Cauchy at a geometric rate, $|\mathcal{E}(\ell)-\mathcal{E}(\ell')|\le Cκ^{(\ell+1)/3}$ for all $\ell'>\ell$, so all layers beyond depth $O(\log(1/ε))$ change the error by less than $ε$; conversely, under mild regularity each sufficiently deep layer still flips the decision with probability at least $cκ^{\ell/2}$, the empirically sharp exponent. Above the threshold ($κ>1$), depth is geometrically productive: $\mathcal{E}(\ell)$ is driven to a branching-process floor of order at most $1/(κ-1)$ at any geometric rate $κ^{-s\ell}$, $s<1$ (this bound has content only for $κ>17$). No local classifier of any depth beats the universal floor $e^{-Δ}Φ(-ζ)$ set by isolated roots ($ζ$ the feature signal-to-noise ratio), while the first layer provably helps by an explicit total-variation amount. Simulations with an exact belief-propagation baseline on the same trees show that the pairwise rule's error curve is mildly non-monotone in $\ell$, so an optimal finite depth exists (an exact instance is certified in the appendix), while BP saturates strictly faster, at an effective per-layer ratio below $κ$ that we identify.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

FluxDisco: Symbolic Regression for Stoichiometric Dynamical Systems via Monte Carlo Graph Search

Dynamical symbolic regression methods identify governing differential equations from noisy data, balancing interpretability and predictive accuracy. However, standard methods often produce expressions that violate known physical laws. To address this, we propose FluxDisco, a physics-informed framework tailored for flux-based, stoichiometric ODE systems. By leveraging a known stoichiometry, we reduce the expression search space and ensure physical adherence. Our framework adapts the Monte Carlo Graph Search algorithm for the unique challenges associated with joint flux discovery of stoichiometric systems. We evaluate our method across a range of physical and biological systems, demonstrating its ability to accurately recover governing dynamics through interpretable equations.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Sharp mean-field analysis of permutation mixtures and permutation-invariant decisions

We develop sharp bounds on the statistical distance between high-dimensional permutation mixtures and their i.i.d. counterparts. Our approach establishes a new geometric link between the spectrum of a complex channel overlap matrix and the information geometry of the channel, yielding tight dimension-independent bounds that close gaps left by previous work. Within this geometric framework, we also derive dimension-dependent bounds that uncover phase transitions in dimensionality for Gaussian and Poisson families. Applied to compound decision problems, this refined control of permutation mixtures enables sharper mean-field analyses of permutation-invariant decision rules, yielding strong non-asymptotic equivalence results between two notions of compound regret in Gaussian and Poisson models.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

SHAKE-GNN: Scalable Hierarchical Kirchhoff-Forest Graph Neural Network

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable success across a range of learning tasks. However, scaling GNNs to large graphs remains a significant challenge, especially for graph-level tasks. In this work, we introduce SHAKE-GNN, a novel scalable graph-level GNN framework based on a hierarchy of Kirchhoff Forests, a class of random spanning forests used to construct stochastic multi-resolution decompositions of graphs. SHAKE-GNN produces multi-scale representations, enabling flexible trade-offs between efficiency and performance. We introduce an improved, data-driven strategy for selecting the trade-off parameter and analyse the time-complexity of SHAKE-GNN. Experimental results on multiple large-scale graph classification benchmarks demonstrate that SHAKE-GNN achieves competitive performance while offering improved scalability.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

A Complete Characterization of Tensorizable $f$-divergences

Csiszar's formulation of the $f$-divergence introduced a vast family of functionals for quantifying dissimilarity between probability distributions. However, many applications in statistics and information theory rely only on a few $f$-divergences, such as the Kullback-Leibler divergence, the $χ^2$-divergence, and the squared Hellinger distance. These divergences are especially useful because they admit simple compositional formulas under product measures, a property sometimes referred to as tensorization. In this work, we refine a formalism of tensorization previously introduced in the literature. Then, we show that any possible tensorization formula has a multi-affine form characterized by a single parameter, and identify all tensorizable $f$-divergences under our adopted notion of tensorization.

cs.IT↗
arXiv2026

Text Data Analysis and Classification Methods - Insights from Customer Letters in Life Insurance

The business of life insurance companies is characterized by long-term contracts. For this reason, data describing customers is of immense value. A portion of the data provided to the customer is rarely or not at all analyzed. This includes customer letters of any kind. This work focuses on classifying customer letters as cancellations and identifying the respective reason, if available. The outlined approach can also be applied to other business transactions and reasons. We discuss data acquisition and preparation, present alternatives, and explain the reasons for the chosen approach. A successful implementation of such a tool can lead to a better understanding of customer cancellation behavior by the insurer, enabling more targeted actions in certain situations.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2026

Deep learning based numerical approximation algorithms for stochastic partial differential equations

In this article, we introduce a deep learning based approximation algorithm for SPDEs. Our approach employs neural networks to approximate the solutions of SPDEs along given realizations of the driving noise process. If applied to a set of simulated noise trajectories, it yields empirical distributions of SPDE solutions, from which functionals like the mean and variance can be estimated. We test the performance of the method on stochastic heat equations with additive and multiplicative noise as well as stochastic Black-Scholes equations with multiplicative noise and Zakai equations from nonlinear filtering theory. In all cases, the proposed algorithm yields accurate results with short runtimes in up to 100 space dimensions.

math.NA↗
arXiv2026

Off the Normal Path: Learning Spatial Density Models of Node Mobility

We consider the problem of learning models of spatial density functions, representing the steady-state density of mobile nodes moving on a two-dimensional terrain. Deriving such models can assist in network design and optimization problems, e.g., by accelerating the computation of the density function during a parameter sweep. We address the question of applicability of off-the-shelf mixture density network models and of, two varieties of, normalizing flows for the description of mobile node density over a disk. We introduce the use of Möbius distributions to retain symmetric spatial relations. Our results indicate that mixtures of Möbius distributions provide interpretable, parsimonious models for the studied steady state density distributions, that match or outperform the alternatives.

cs.NI↗
arXiv2026

Accelerate Vector Diffusion Maps by Landmarks

We propose a landmark-constrained algorithm, LA-VDM (Landmark Accelerated Vector Diffusion Maps), to accelerate the Vector Diffusion Maps (VDM) framework built upon the Graph Connection Laplacian (GCL), which captures pairwise connection relationships within complex datasets. LA-VDM introduces a novel two-stage normalization that effectively address nonuniform sampling densities in both the data and the landmark sets. Under a manifold model with the frame bundle structure, we show that we can accurately recover the parallel transport with landmark-constrained diffusion from a point cloud, and hence asymptotically LA-VDM converges to the connection Laplacian. The performance and accuracy of LA-VDM are demonstrated through experiments on simulated datasets and an application to nonlocal image denoising.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Control

We study risk-averse decision making, in which an agent selects actions while being uncertain about the true system state. The risk is measured via optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) metrics, which generalize popular criteria such as mean-variance risk and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We characterize the optimal policy under known distributions, and show that it reduces to a prediction set-based solution for the CVaR. This provides an operational interpretation of conformal prediction-type prediction sets. For unknown distributions, we develop a data-driven calibration strategy, based on a synthetic model for the likelihood and held-out calibration data, yielding high-probability control of the OCE risk. The approach is evaluated on two wireless beamforming settings.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Online Learning with LLM Experts from Limited Feedback

We study adaptive routing of prompts to large language model (LLM) experts to maximize response quality in an online setting with limited feedback. We formulate it as a bandit problem with $K$ actions that represent experts and $d$ features that encode prompts, over a horizon of $T$ rounds. We propose algorithms that strategically select and observe rewards to minimize regret. In the full-information setting, we achieve a regret of $\tilde{O}(d T / \sqrt{m})$, while in the bandit setting we achieve $\tilde{O}(d T \sqrt{K / m})$, where $m \ll T$ is a budget on feedback. Our experiments show that we efficiently learn high-quality routing strategies across diverse LLMs from limited feedback.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Reliable Selection of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimators

We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing problem and introduce a ground-truth-free procedure based on a cross-fitted, exponentially weighted test statistic. A key component of our method is a two-way sample splitting scheme that decouples nuisance estimation from weight learning and ensures the stability required for valid inference. Leveraging a stability-based central limit theorem, we establish asymptotic familywise error rate control under mild regularity conditions. Empirically, our procedure provides reliable error control while substantially reducing false selections compared with commonly used methods across ACIC 2016, IHDP, and Twins benchmarks, demonstrating that our method is feasible and powerful even without ground-truth treatment effects.

stat.ML↗