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arXiv2026

A Checklist to assess the energy and carbon impacts of ML/AI applications in Earth System Modeling

As machine learning and artificial intelligence find their way into nearly every aspect of climate, weather, and Earth system modeling, it is worth pausing to consider what our design decisions imply for the science and for the computational resources we consume. A growing body of literature addresses the ethical and sustainable development of ML/AI, yet translating these principles into day-to-day research practice remains a challenge as most of best practices are dispersed across multiple studies and commentaries. Here, we distill these discussions into a practical checklist that ML/AI and Earth system science practitioners can use to assess and reduce the environmental footprint of their own applications, organised around the successive stages of the model development pipeline. We complement the checklist with a selection of metrics drawn from the literature for estimating the energy consumption and carbon footprint of a project. For each question, we point to concrete examples and actionable suggestions from recent literature, aiming to bridge the gap between aspirational principles and the decisions researchers face at every stage of the development cycle.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2026

A Sensor-Adaptive Incremental Learning Framework for Artifact Detection in Satellite Precipitation Data

Historically, retrieving rainfall data from satellite imagery has been the domain of space agencies. However, in recent years, the development of cheaper, more compact satellites (SmallSats) capable of detecting rainfall proxies has led to a significant increase in private-sector initiatives for satellite launch and surface precipitation products. This rapid growth has yet to be matched by data validation efforts. Consequently, the need for a robust tool to detect anomalies in near-real-time data before it is disseminated to the public has become critical. In this paper, we present the development of an anomaly-detection system to identify artifacts in global satellite-based rainfall products. The developed framework leverages pre-trained computer vision models and incorporates scarce human-labeled data to detect specific anomalies. Our proposed anomaly detection strategy is tested on data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). Results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach at separating regular orbits from artifact-containing orbits for each satellite, with performance comparable to state-of-the-art in-place methods. Additionally, the framework offers explainability and the capacity for iterative refinement following false-positive or false-negative classifications.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.

physics.ao-ph↗
arXiv2026

Real-Time Monitoring of MHD Liquid Metal Flows with Shallow Recurrent Decoders

State estimation in magnetohydrodynamic flows is critical for real-time monitoring of liquid metal blankets in tokamak fusion reactors. Due to the multiphysics nature of these phenomena, high-fidelity simulations are computationally prohibitive for real-time applications. This work investigates a data- driven Reduced Order Model framework: the Shallow Recurrent Decoder (SHRED) coupled with Principal Component Analysis, to map sparse temperature measurements to the full thermo-hydraulic system's state. The major contribution of this work lies in the two-parameter analysis of a fully three-dimensional domain representative of the DEMO breeding blanket configuration. Here, the flow is subjected to an external magnetic field varying in direction and intensity and is hindered by two cylinders acting as a water-cooling system, which impose a temperature boundary condition on their surfaces. This double-parametric magnetic variation induces nonlinear transitions in the flow dynamics, ranging from chaotic behavior at low magnetic field intensities to laminarized regimes at high intensities, characterized by the formation of asymmetric side layers at an inclination angle of 30 degrees. SHRED reconstruction maintains a mean relative error of approximately 5% for the temperature, pressure, and velocity fields. This accuracy is maintained across both weak and strong magnetic fields, ranging from 0.075 T to 0.300 T, and for inclination angles from 5 to 30 degrees, reflecting its dominant toroidal component. These errors are only slightly larger than the lower error bound dictated by low-rank truncation. The results establish SHRED as a reliable state estimator for complex and realistic engineering applications involving completely unseen parametric scenarios and validate it as an accurate real-time state estimation technique suitable for online monitoring and control of real facilities.

physics.comp-ph↗
arXiv2026

Sustained Heterogeneity: an emergent collective mechanism in LLM-driven traffic

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted as closed-loop controllers in physical multi-agent systems, yet their emergent collective dynamics remain incompletely characterised. We deploy 22 LLM agents as direct, real-time target-speed controllers (per 0.5 s cycle, with IDM as collision-avoidance clamp) on a 230 m ring road under the Sugiyama 2008 paradigm, reproducing human-like stop-and-go waves. Six matched controls spanning stochasticity (white noise, OU noise, temperature), population variance, and dynamical instability (delay, OV model) are systematically excluded. The surviving phenomenon, termed Sustained Heterogeneity (SH), is the persistent, approximately temperature-insensitive (approx. 8 percent across a 6x T sweep), per-cycle divergence in LLM-chosen target-speed adjustments, propagating through a three-stage cascade of drift, gap erosion, and nonlinear braking. Across four traffic densities, the critical LLM penetration fraction p_c decreases monotonically from no transition at density 43.5 veh/km to p_c approx 0.23 at density 95.7 veh/km, consistent with an initiation-threshold model governed by trigger distance, stochasticity, and fleet size. Chain-of-thought analysis of 39,600 decisions across three seeds shows agents engage in multi-factor safety reasoning, yet systematic divergence persists, implying stability must be enforced at the dynamics layer. This is the first study to identify a previously uncharacterised collective mechanism in LLM-controlled traffic and map a density-dependent phase boundary p_c(rho).

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

CDEP Agent: Connecting Meteorologically Detected Temporal Compound Events to Real-World Documentary Evidence

Compound drought-to-extreme-precipitation (CDEP) events are recognized in climate science as a growing driver of extreme impact, but whether this recognition carries over into real-world early warning and post-event documentation is unknown, so a meteorologically real CDEP event may pass with neither advance warning nor any later record. Here we present CDEP Agent, an auditable LLM-agent framework that tests this mismatch directly by linking CDEP candidates detected from meteorological reanalysis to real-world hazard and impact evidence across sources with different spatial scales, temporal resolutions, and reporting conventions. Using California as a case study, we identify 408 candidate CDEP events from ERA5 observations during 2021-2025 and evaluate each against the U.S. Drought Monitor, NOAA Storm Events, and public webpages along five dimensions: antecedent drought, extreme rainfall, local impact, hazard-impact attribution, and explicit drought-to-rainfall linkage. Only 34.3% of candidates are corroborated on both hazard components, and just 1.5% are ever explicitly linked to their antecedent drought, indicating that most meteorologically detected CDEP events go undocumented and their compound nature almost never enters the record at all. Our framework gives climate scientists a way to test physical event definitions against what actually gets documented, and gives social scientists, economists, and disaster-response agencies a provenance-linked evidence base for compound events that current warning and reporting systems largely fail to capture.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Vision-Based Tactile Sensing for the Perception of the Object's Compliance and Hardness

Object compliance perception enables the identification of soft materials, supporting tasks such as fruit detection and assisted medical palpation. Compliance perception requires sensing an object's deformation and contact forces. Existing vision-based tactile sensing for compliance perception usually depends only on force or deformation. However, deformation-based approaches cannot reliably quantify object compliance, while force-based methods are overly sensitive to geometric variations. To address these limitations, this paper presents a framework that fuses temporal force sequences and deformation field information. Specifically, time-varying contact forces are inferred from tactile image sequences via a neural network, while deformation characteristics are encoded using depth maps. Crucially, the temporal force sequence is used as a dynamic force-response feature for compliance recognition. In standard experiments, the force prediction error reaches 0.06 N within a measurement range of 12 N. The proposed method achieves a 98.0% Shore-hardness classification accuracy for samples ranging from 10 HA to 80 HA. In practical scenarios, including abnormal fruit detection and soft matter, the overall accuracy exceeds 98.5%. This method improves the compliance perception ability of artificial tactile systems and facilitates their deployment in embodied perception applications.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

Hadronic Mono-Z Dark Matter Sensitivity with Flow Matching on CMS Open Data

We present a projected sensitivity study for hadronic mono-$Z$ dark-matter production using CMS Run~2015D HTMHT open data corresponding to 2.256382381~\invfb, from which 1{,}439{,}523 events satisfy the hadronic mono-$Z$ selection. Backgrounds are modelled with a conditional flow-matching continuous normalizing flow trained on the selected HTMHT events and evaluated on a held-out validation split reweighted to the full selected population. To mitigate artifacts from missing-object features and avoid in-sample scoring bias we apply sentinel imputation for undefined angular features, persist the train/validation split indices, and enforce a minimum reported background yield of 20 events when selecting the working point. A signal-side offline trigger proxy is applied to the simulated signal before scoring. Under this procedure the baseline analysis yields expected significances of 2.89$σ$, 7.62$σ$, and 7.41$σ$ for three simplified-model benchmarks. An ablation study that removes the detailed extra-jet kinematics reduces the expected significance by 53--71\%, indicating that extra-jet topology carries substantial discriminating power in the hadronic mono-$Z$ channel. These results are projected sensitivities (no unblinding performed); the limitations and reproducibility of the study are discussed in Sections limitations and reproducibility.

hep-ex↗
arXiv2026

From Nowcasting to Forecasting: Adapting a Reanalysis-Trained

Accurate cloud-cover forecasts are important for temperature prediction, radiation forecasting, and solar-power operations. Short-range forecasting methods can preserve observed cloud placement during the first forecast hours, but their skill decreases when cloud fields evolve through formation, dissipation and deformation. Longer lead times require accounting for atmospheric evolution, but operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts may not accurately represent the satellite-observed cloud state at initialization. We develop CloudCast v2, a machine-learning model for 12-hour cloud-cover forecasting from observation-based initial conditions. The model is first trained on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (Ridal2024) to learn cloud-evolution dynamics, and is then adapted to satellite-derived cloud fields using conditional flow matching (Lipman2023), a generative method that transforms noise into cloud-cover forecasts conditioned on the observed initial cloud fields and NWP inputs. CloudCast v2 reduces mean absolute error by 10% relative to its predecessor, CloudCast v1 (Partio2025), over the 1-12 h range. It also overtakes CloudCast v1 in fractions skill score, a neighborhood-based measure of spatial agreement, after approximately 3-6 h, depending on the cloudiness category. These results show that observation-initialized machine-learning forecasts can extend beyond the usual 1-3-hour nowcasting range while retaining spatial detail from satellite cloud fields.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Thermal Recurrence Orders of the Potts Model Partition Function in Grid Graphs

We study the linear recurrence order of the Potts model partition function on thermal 2D grid graphs. By restricting the transfer matrix (TM) to the real coupling axis, the physical operator maintains diagonalizability under the Spectral Theorem. We show that this thermal regularization allows the Krylov subspace to saturate the unconstrained planar state capacity, locking the recurrence order to the Dyck path up to reversal (OEIS A007123) for $q \ge 4$. Furthermore, the recurrence order collapses to height-restricted Dyck paths up to reversal (OEIS A001998) for $q=3$ due to finite-index Jones-Wenzl projections, and to the zero-magnetization conservation sector (OEIS A001405) for $q=2$. This framework bridges graph-theoretic combinatorics with the representation theory of physical loop gas models.

cs.DM↗
arXiv2026

AdaptNTK: Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification and Active Learning for Neural Network Potentials

Machine learning interatomic potentials bridge the gap between quantum chemical precision and classical computational speed, enabling molecular dynamics simulations with first-principles accuracy. Their reliability is often improved through active learning, which iteratively expands the training set by identifying uncertain, out-of-distribution configurations. Existing uncertainty-quantification methods often involve a trade-off between computational cost and reliability, and generally cannot account for redundancy as an acquisition batch is assembled. Here, we introduce AdaptNTK, a single-model framework that measures uncertainty as a regularized Mahalanobis distance in empirical neural tangent kernel (NTK) feature space. With the NTK features fixed during acquisition, the uncertainty depends on the acquired configurations but not their reference labels. This allows the uncertainty to be updated recursively after each selection without retraining, reducing redundancy within an acquisition batch. On held-out rMD17 data, AdaptNTK achieves the highest mean correlations with force errors (Spearman 0.68, Pearson 0.71) and matches a three-member ensemble in error retention. In active learning experiments, AdaptNTK achieves the lowest force errors across rMD17 and Transition-1X, with particularly strong performance on transition-state configurations in Transition-1X. AdaptNTK provides a 2.6-fold speedup per Transition-1X cycle relative to the ensemble, providing efficient single-model uncertainty estimation with sequential updates for data-efficient active learning.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Building a research-software catalog with a coding agent: from hackathon prototype to public deployment

Generative AI and coding agents can accelerate research software development, but they also increase the need for efficient software discovery and maintenance. We developed a repository catalog during a three-day hackathon and subsequently examined the engineering required to make it suitable for public deployment, including adversarial review, data-quality checks, browser-level validation, and publication safeguards. We then explored whether the lessons learned from this prototype could be transferred to a much larger, human-curated portal, through a retrieval agent under development for MateriApps that combines curated portal metadata, external documentation, vector search, and local language-model generation. Implementation with coding agents was rapid, but achieving reliable operation required substantial additional engineering: the most consequential problems were not crashes but silent failures that produced plausible yet incomplete or incorrect outputs, arising from incomplete data acquisition, misleading assessments, and retrieval or preprocessing failures. These observations suggest that AI-assisted software portals require explicit validation, monitoring, and repeated review, and that curated metadata and maintained documentation remain essential. The MateriApps work is exploratory and remains under active development, so the observations reported for it are preliminary; a comparable combination of curated metadata, automatically collected documentation, and retrieval-based assistance may nevertheless be useful for extending other research-software portals.

cs.SE↗
arXiv2026

LitCurate: A Configuration-Driven AI-Assisted Framework for Scientific Database Construction with an Application to Lower-Mantle Equation-of-State Data

The growing scientific literature contains decades of experimental and computational results that could support data-driven and physics-based modeling, yet much of this infor- mation remains locked in publications and is not readily usable for large-scale analysis or sci- entific software. Building structured databases from the literature is particularly challenging whenrelevantstudiesmustfirstbediscoveredamonglargecollectionsofpapersandreported quantities must be extracted with enough scientific context to remain usable. We present LitCurate, an open-source framework for building scientific databases from the literature using large language models within an auditable, stage-wise curation workflow. LitCurate integratesliteraturediscovery, relevancescreening, full-textprocessing, andstructuredinfor- mation extraction while retaining intermediate results and provenance, allowing researchers to inspect and revise individual stages rather than treating automated curation as a black- box process. We apply LitCurate to construct an equation-of-state database of lower-mantle and lower-mantle-relevant high-pressure mineral phases from experimental and theoretical studies, comprising 1,334 entries from 205 papers. The resulting dataset links reported equation-of-state parameters to mineral phases, compositions, equation formulations, meth- ods, and parameter constraints, and labels values as source-reported or citation-reported when provenance can be determined. The records are available through a searchable web application. By connecting scientific literature to traceable, machine-readable data, LitCu- rate provides a reusable approach for transforming accumulated literature into resources for scientific analysis and computational modeling.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

MRpro: open framework for model-based, learned, and quantitative MR imaging

We preseent an open-source image reconstruction package built upon PyTorch, enabling modern deep-learning reconstructions. It uses open data formats for input and output (ISMRMRD, DICOM, NIfTI), allowing easy integration into existing pipelines and support for data from different devices. The framework comprises three main areas. First, it provides unified data structures for the consistent manipulation of MR datasets and their associated metadata (e.g., k-space trajectories). Second, it offers a library of composable operators, proximable functionals, and optimization algorithms, including a unified Fourier operator for all common trajectories and operators specifically developed for low-field applications, such as a B0-correction operator. These components are used to create ready-to-use implementations of key reconstruction algorithms. Third, for deep learning, MRpro includes essential building blocks such as data-consistency layers, differentiable optimization layers, state-of-the-art backbone networks, and access to public datasets to facilitate reproducibility. We demonstrate MRpro across automatic reconstruction, iterative SENSE, deep-learning-based reconstruction, and quantitative parameter estimation. Applications use public and simulated datasets and measured lowfield data acquired at 0.3 T, 0.6 T, and 47 mT.

eess.IV↗
arXiv2025

Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2026

Unraveling the PFAS helix: A statistical approach

The extreme persistence of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the environment is rooted in their three-dimensional molecular conformation. The helical twist adopted by perfluoroalkyl chains due to hyperconjugation involving their recalcitrant C-F bonds governs their resistance to degradation, yet a quantitative, continuous metric for helicity has remained absent. Here we introduce a data-driven framework that quantifies backbone helicity using three statistical descriptors: void-state (binary occupancy) spatial autocorrelations, local backbone principal component analysis, and persistent homology. We further validate each statistical descriptor against geometric dihedral benchmarks and DFT-calculated Vibrational Circular Dichroism (VCD) spectra. The framework is initially established on a homologous series of perfluorocarboxylic acids (FC2 through FC16) and their hydrogenated analogues, then extended across perfluorosulfonic acids, fluorotelomer alcohols, polyfluoroalkyl hexanoic acid analogues, and longer-chain PFOA and PFOS analogues. Agreement between statistical, geometric, and spectroscopic definitions of helicity is established for PFCAs and extended to structurally distinct subfamilies, including PFOA analogues of varying fluorine content and perfluorosulfonic acids, demonstrating that the descriptors are robust to changes in headgroup chemistry and fluorine substitution pattern. The framework provides a chemistry-agnostic toolset for incorporating backbone conformation into predictive models of PFAS environmental fate and degradation reactivity.

physics.chem-ph↗
arXiv2026

Advancing Subseasonal Forecasting with Machine Learning

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2 - 6 weeks ahead), due to compounding errors, systemic model biases, and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and AI models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), PBC doubles the modest subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System and improves the skill of the operationally-debiased dynamical model for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature, and 98% of precipitation targets. We designed PBC for operational deployment, and, in ECMWF's 2025 real-time forecasting competition, its global forecasts placed first for all weather variables and lead times, outperforming the dynamical models from six operational forecasting centers, an international dynamical multi-model ensemble, ECMWF's AI Forecasting System, and the forecasting systems of 34 teams worldwide. These probabilistic skill gains translate into more accurate prediction of extreme events and have the potential to improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

SoniMet - A tool for sonifying and visualizing the performance of single researchers

For centuries, the scientific community has predominantly relied on visual tools to communicate empirical results and complex datasets. While visual representations dominate bibliometric analyses, the human auditory system possesses sensitive capacities for processing complex temporal information, distinguishing intricate patterns, and tracking parallel data streams. Data sonification translates data relations into acoustic signals, offering an alternative method for data exploration, pattern recognition, and scientific communication. This paper applies this concept to the field of bibliometrics through metrics sonification-the auditory translation of bibliometric information-and introduces SoniMet (Sonifying Metrics), a web-based tool designed to visualize and sonify the publication and citation data of individual scientists (see https://sonimet.kennebec.co.uk). SoniMet connects to the OpenAlex database to retrieve bibliometric records and displays them on an interactive chronological timeline. The tool employs direct parameter mapping to translate citation impact indicators into non-speech sound: field-weighted citation impact and citation counts determine the pitch and volume of a synthesized note and are mapped to the acoustic echo strength. Although SoniMet expands the methodological toolkit for research evaluation, current limitations include its restriction to individual scholar profiles and the challenge of integrating transient audio files into traditional, text-based scientific publishing workflows. Future empirical user studies are necessary to systematically evaluate the analytical utility and cognitive benefits of metrics sonification compared to established visual methods.

cs.DL↗