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arXiv2026

Variable Selection for Feature-Based Newsvendor

Feature-based newsvendor models use observable covariates to tailor inventory decisions, aiming to balance holding and shortage costs under demand uncertainty. However, high-dimensional feature sets often hinder interpretability and inflate data collection and implementation costs. This paper studies variable selection for the feature-based newsvendor problem under a hard cardinality constraint on the number of selected features. We formulate the resulting $\ell_0$-constrained empirical newsvendor problem with $\ell_2$-regularization, establish its computational hardness, and develop a mixed-integer second-order cone programming reformulation that strengthens the standard Big-$M$ formulation. To enable scalability beyond exact optimization, we develop a randomized-rounding algorithm with a bi-criteria guarantee and a greedy heuristic. Statistically, we provide theoretical analysis of the resulting sparse policy estimator, including finite-sample estimation error, out-of-sample risk bounds, and support recovery guarantees. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data illustrate the computational and statistical trade-offs among various baselines. Our results demonstrate that the proposed variable selection framework achieves competitive out-of-sample operational costs while using substantially fewer covariates.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Performative Privacy: When Differential Privacy Maximizes Utility

Privacy-preserving learning is often motivated by the idea that protecting users' data can preserve trust and thus participation, improving utility in the long term. However, this claim has not been formalized so far. In parallel, performative learning provides a framework for studying learning systems whose deployment affects the data they later observe. In this work, we bring these two perspectives together and introduce performative privacy, where data leakage reduces future participation. We study a simple model where agents repeatedly contribute data for mean estimation but may leave the system when their data is leaked. Privacy is implemented through differentially private mechanisms, creating a trade-off between estimation noise and future participation. We show, through a theoretical study of the dynamics and numerical experiments, that a finite privacy budget can outperform non-private estimation in the long term when the feedback loop between leakage and participation is sufficiently strong. This provides first evidence that differential privacy can be optimal not only as a protection mechanism, but also from the perspective of long-term utility.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Let the Flows Tell: Solving Graph Combinatorial Optimization Problems with GFlowNets

Combinatorial optimization (CO) problems are often NP-hard and thus out of reach for exact algorithms, making them a tempting domain to apply machine learning methods. The highly structured constraints in these problems can hinder either optimization or sampling directly in the solution space. On the other hand, GFlowNets have recently emerged as a powerful machinery to efficiently sample from composite unnormalized densities sequentially and have the potential to amortize such solution-searching processes in CO, as well as generate diverse solution candidates. In this paper, we design Markov decision processes (MDPs) for different combinatorial problems and propose to train conditional GFlowNets to sample from the solution space. Efficient training techniques are also developed to benefit long-range credit assignment. Through extensive experiments on a variety of different CO tasks with synthetic and realistic data, we demonstrate that GFlowNet policies can efficiently find high-quality solutions. Our implementation is open-sourced at https://github.com/zdhNarsil/GFlowNet-CombOpt.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Persistent Entropy as a Detector of Phase Transitions

Persistent entropy is a scalar summary of persistence barcodes widely used to detect regime changes, yet there is no account of when a structural change in a barcode must produce a detectable change in entropy. We establish a model-agnostic theorem supplying such conditions. Treating persistence diagrams as random objects indexed by a control parameter, we identify a dispersion-condensation mechanism in the normalized persistence weights and derive an explicit lower bound on the entropy difference between the two regimes, valid with high probability at finite sample size and insensitive to the absolute scale of bar lifetimes. We also give a procedure for verifying the hypotheses on empirical barcodes. Applied to convolutional networks, the criterion shows that the circular organization of learned filters reported by Gabrielsson and Carlsson emerges through a sharp topological phase transition, and locates its onset: within a few hundred iterations on MNIST, but an order of magnitude later on CIFAR-10. The same criterion detects the Kuramoto synchronization and Vicsek order-disorder transitions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

In LLM Reasoning, there is Irrationality on top of Value Misalignment

Significant progress has been made in aligning LLMs with target value functions. We argue that, even when an LLM has been well aligned in (post-)training, it may still fail to maximise the aligned value in reasoning. We mathematically formalise this gap as rational value risk: the utility discrepancy between a model's deployed reasoning strategy and its rational counterpart whose responses maximise utility in the steepest direction. The estimation error of rational value risk is further decomposed into three components from bounded prompts, bounded responses, and imperfect verifiers. Extensive experiments are conducted, covering models Llama-3.1, Qwen-2.5, Tülu-3 families (7B-72B), GPT-5.2, GPT-5.5, and DeepSeek-V4, and benchmarks UltraFeedback, AlpacaEval, GSM8K, MATH, HumanEval, and MathArena. The results validate that (1) rational value risk is widespread; (2) value alignment can reduce, but cannot avoid, it; (3) self-consistency can improve rationality; and (4) a longer chain of thought improves rationality but with diminishing returns. The code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/LLM-Rationality

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Keep Everyone Happy: Online Fair Division of Numerous Items with Few Copies

This paper considers a novel variant of the online fair division problem involving multiple agents in which a learner sequentially observes an indivisible item that must be irrevocably allocated to one of the agents to achieve a desired balance between fairness and efficiency. Existing algorithms assume a small number of items with a sufficiently large number of copies, which ensures a good utility estimation for all item-agent pairs from noisy observed utilities. However, this assumption may not hold in many real-life applications, e.g., an online platform with a large number of users (items) who use the platform's service providers (agents) only a few times (a few copies of items), making it difficult to accurately estimate utilities for all item-agent pairs. To address this limitation, we assume utility is an unknown function of item-agent features. We propose algorithms that model online fair division as a contextual bandit problem and achieve provable sublinear regret. Our experimental results further validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Gaussian Linear Functional Manifold Method for Massive Point Cloud Data

Reconstructing continuous terrain manifolds from massive, unstructured airborne LiDAR point clouds remains challenging in complex Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) environments, where deep neural networks require costly point-wise annotations and nonparametric surface reconstruction methods often lack structural interpretability. This paper introduces the Gaussian Linear Functional Manifold (GLFM), a physics-informed statistical framework that represents continuous surface topography using deterministic linear functional bases while modeling microscale diffuse laser backscatter as an isotropic Gaussian process. To avoid the quadratic computational cost of exact constrained maximum likelihood estimation, we develop an algebraic singular value decomposition (SVD) rank-reduction algorithm that enables linear-time parameter estimation and closed-form quadric classification. Evaluated on 35.2 km^2 of real-world aerial LiDAR data, GLFM automatically filters ground points and extracts morphological features, achieving an adjusted Rand index (ARI) of 0.9933 against field-verified ground truth and outperforming four leading baselines while maintaining an out-of-core memory footprint. The framework provides a rigorous, interpretable, and scalable foundation for large-scale point cloud analytics.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Simultaneous Monitoring of Shape and Surface Color via 4D Point Clouds: A Registration-free Approach

Advanced manufacturing technologies allow for the production of intricate parts featuring high shape complexity and spatially-varying material composition. Data fusion of point clouds with chromatic attributes provides 4D point clouds, a compact and informative representation that encodes both shape and material information. In this paper, we present a registration-free framework for Simultaneous Monitoring of shApe and Color (SMAC) via 4D point clouds. The proposed framework leverages Laplace-Beltrami operator spectral properties to capture and monitor geometric features and the relationship between shape and surface color. A combined monitoring scheme is proposed to effectively detect shape deformations and color anomalies, along with a spatially-aware post-signal diagnostic procedure to determine the source of change and localize color anomalies. Importantly, neither component relies on registration or mesh reconstruction, eliminating error-prone and computationally expensive preprocessing steps. A Monte Carlo simulation study and a case study on functionally graded materials demonstrate that SMAC achieves effective detection performance, particularly for subtle defects, while providing diagnostic capabilities to identify the source and location of anomalies.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

On the Computational and Statistical Efficiency of the Empirical Maximum Entropy on the Mean Method

The Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM) method provides a flexible computational framework for solving inverse problems by combining data fidelity with entropy-based regularization. In practice, however, the prior distribution is typically unknown but can be estimated from data, giving rise to the empirical MEM method. We establish a parametric convergence rate of $O(n^{-1/2})$ in expectation for empirical MEM, improving upon the previously established $O(n^{-1/4})$ guarantee by King-Roskamp et al. (2026). Our proof is based on a novel stability analysis of the primal and dual optimization problems under perturbations of the underlying probability measure, relying only on foundational tools from convex analysis and probability. We further show that the MEM dual problem admits a reformulation as an expected risk minimization problem, thereby placing MEM within the modern framework of stochastic optimization and enabling scalable stochastic gradient algorithms for large-scale inverse problems. Together, these results place empirical MEM as a statistically and computationally efficient methodology for data-driven inverse problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Cooperative Multi-Task Semantic Communication for Joint Classification and Regression Tasks

Multi-Task semantic communication (SemCom) prioritizes simultaneous execution of multiple tasks over bit-accurate reconstruction in future intelligent networks. In our prior work [1], we introduced the cooperative multi-task SemCom (CMT-SemCom) framework, in which the semantic encoder is divided into a common unit (CU) and multiple specific units (SUs) to facilitate cooperative multi-task processing. However, CMT-SemCom has been evaluated on homogeneous classification tasks on simplistic datasets, limiting its applicability to real-world perception systems. In this paper, we extend our CMT-SemCom to jointly handle heterogeneous classification and regression tasks on the complex Cityscapes dataset. We adopt the information maximization (InfoMax) principle so that it accommodates mixed discrete and continuous semantic variables. In particular, we benchmark the proposed framework against independent single-task training, a conventional task-agnostic digital transmission, and single-encoder multi-decoder SemCom. Additionally, we investigate the impact of CU capacity on joint task performance, providing design insights. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that CMT-SemCom significantly outperforms the benchmarks.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence

While InfoNCE underlies modern contrastive learning, its geometric mechanisms remain under-characterized beyond the canonical alignment--uniformity decomposition. We develop a measure-theoretic framework in which representation measures evolve on a fixed embedding manifold. In the large-batch limit, we prove value and gradient consistency, linking the stochastic objective to explicit deterministic energy landscapes and revealing a geometric bifurcation between unimodal and symmetric multimodal regimes. In the unimodal case, the intrinsic energy is strictly convex and admits a unique Gibbs equilibrium, showing that entropy acts as a tie-breaker within the aligned basin. In the multimodal case, the intrinsic geometry becomes cross-coupled and contains a persistent negative symmetric divergence term: each modality's marginal reshapes the effective landscape of the other, allowing strong pairwise alignment to coexist with a persistent modality gap. Controlled synthetic experiments and analyses of pretrained CLIP representations support these predictions. Overall, our results shift the analytical lens from pointwise discrimination to population geometry, showing that pairwise alignment alone is insufficient to control cross-modal marginal structure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

DDPM Score Matching and Distribution Learning

Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs), especially denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). A key result in this area shows that with accurate score estimates, SGMs can efficiently generate samples from any realistic data distribution (Chen et al., ICLR'23; Lee et al., ALT'23). This distribution learning result, where the learned distribution is implicitly that of the sampler's output, does not explain how score estimation relates to classical tasks of parameter and density estimation. This paper introduces a framework that reduces score estimation to these two tasks, with various implications for statistical and computational learning theory: Parameter Estimation: Koehler et al. (ICLR'23) demonstrate that a score-matching variant is statistically inefficient for the parametric estimation of multimodal densities common in practice. In contrast, we show that under mild conditions, denoising score-matching in DDPMs is asymptotically efficient. Density Estimation: By linking generation to score estimation, we lift existing score estimation guarantees to $(ε,δ)$-PAC density estimation, i.e., a function approximating the target log-density within $ε$ on all but a $δ$-fraction of the space. We provide (i) minimax rates for density estimation over Hölder classes and (ii) a quasi-polynomial PAC density estimation algorithm for the classical Gaussian location mixture model, building on and addressing an open problem from Gatmiry et al. (COLT'26). Lower Bounds for Score Estimation: Our framework offers the first principled method to prove computational lower bounds for score estimation across general distributions. As an application, we establish cryptographic lower bounds for score estimation in general Gaussian mixture models, conceptually recovering Song's (NeurIPS'24) result and advancing his key open problem.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Modeling Information Blackouts in Missing Not-At-Random Time Series Data

Traffic forecasting systems rely on fixed sensor networks that frequently exhibit contiguous blackouts. Such outages are usually treated as ignorable missingness, although dropout can depend on unobserved traffic conditions. We study this possibility with an MNAR-aware latent state-space model that combines linear traffic dynamics with a Bernoulli missingness channel whose probability depends on the latent state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) followed by Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoothing, and parameters are learned by approximate EM. We evaluate Seattle using a leakage-free, month-balanced set of 300 unique all-horizon-aligned blackout windows. On this benchmark, MAR-LDS attains 4.264 mph pooled imputation RMSE and MNAR-LDS improves it to 4.177 (difference -0.086); the detector-cluster bootstrap 95% interval is [-0.182,-0.002]. A causal one-step predicted latent representation raises missingness ROC-AUC from 0.685 using observed-only features to 0.784. We further test whether this compact probabilistic model remains competitive with substantially larger neural time-series architectures under the identical masked-imputation protocol. MNAR-LDS ranks second in pooled RMSE and outperforms 8 of 9 evaluated neural architectures; it is within 1.22% of the best neural result, with no statistically resolved difference under detector-cluster bootstrap, while achieving lower P95 error, lower long-blackout RMSE, and orders of magnitude fewer stored scalar entries. MNAR roughly doubles end-to-end training time relative to MAR and increases EKF+RTS inference time by 41%, making the accuracy-complexity-cost tradeoff explicit. Controlled state-dependent blackouts further show larger gains when dropout is genuinely informative, including a 6.34% reduction in 30-minute forecast RMSE relative to MAR.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Debiased Machine Learning for Conformal Prediction of Counterfactual Outcomes Under Runtime Confounding

Data-driven decision making frequently relies on predicting counterfactual outcomes. In practice, researchers commonly train counterfactual prediction models on a source dataset to inform decisions on a possibly separate target population. Conformal prediction has arisen as a popular method for producing assumption-lean prediction intervals for counterfactual outcomes that would arise under different treatment decisions in the target population of interest. However, existing methods require that every confounding factor of the treatment-outcome relationship used for training on the source data is additionally measured in the target population, risking miscoverage if important confounders are unmeasured in the target population. In this paper, we introduce a computationally efficient debiased machine learning framework that allows for valid prediction intervals when only a subset of confounders is measured in the target population, a common challenge referred to as runtime confounding. Grounded in semiparametric efficiency theory, we show the resulting prediction intervals achieve desired coverage rates with faster convergence compared to standard methods. Through numerous synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments, we demonstrate the utility of our proposed method.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

ICON Decomposition: Auditing Deep Neural Networks with Multivariate Variance-based Concept-level Explanations

Deep neural networks often exploit spurious associations, a failure known as shortcut learning. Auditing for shortcuts requires testing many candidate concepts, such as acquisition settings or demographics. Current concept-based explainability methods test one concept at a time, asking whether it is decodable from a layer. These methods flag concepts that are merely correlated with the outcome or with each other, and their scores are not comparable across layers or concept types. We introduce ICON decomposition, which quantifies how much of a layer's variance each concept explains given all other concepts and the outcome, and how much none of them explains, yielding layer-comparable, calibrated scores that suppress false positives. On simulated data, ICON recovers concept importance more accurately than seven existing methods. On skin-cancer models with inserted artifacts, it detects induced shortcuts where baselines report false positives. On two brain-imaging models, ICON's sparse explanations are validated by retraining and out-of-distribution tests.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

How Perturbations Propagate: A Multi-Level Analysis of Robustness in Large Language Models

Language models encounter typos, corrupted text, altered words, and disrupted token order, yet robustness is usually evaluated only through output behavior. We study how six naturalistic and synthetic input perturbations propagate through decoder-only language models at three levels: output behavior, hidden-state geometry, and attention-head function. We evaluate behavioral effects across four GPT-2 and two Qwen2.5 checkpoints by analyzing layerwise geometry using centered kernel alignment and intrinsic dimension, and examine attention-head responses in GPT-2. Perturbation types produce distinguishable metric profiles that are not fully captured by output measures and are only partly consistent across the tested checkpoints. Copying scores are especially associated with activation-patching recovery under token substitution and shuffling. Gradient-guided HotFlip perturbations also cause stronger behavioral and representational disruption than rate-matched random token substitutions in GPT-2; their behavioral effects are consistent across all six tested checkpoints. Our results show that robustness claims based on a single behavioral or representational metric can be misleading, and motivate multi-level evaluation of how perturbations alter language-model computation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Universal Redundancies in Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) leverage extensive pretraining to accurately predict unseen time series during inference, without the need for task-specific fine-tuning. Through large-scale evaluations on standard benchmarks, we find that leading transformer-based TSFMs exhibit redundant components in their intermediate layers. We introduce a set of tools for mechanistic interpretability of TSFMs, including ablations of specific components and direct logit attribution on the residual stream. Our findings are consistent across several leading TSFMs with diverse architectures, and across a diverse set of real-world and synthetic time-series datasets. We discover that all models in our study are robust to ablations of entire layers. Furthermore, we develop a theoretical framework framing transformers as kernel regressors, motivating a purely intrinsic strategy for ablating heads based on the stable rank of the per-head projection matrices. Using this approach, we uncover the specific heads responsible for degenerate phenomena widely observed in TSFMs, such as parroting of motifs from the context and seasonality bias. Our study sheds light on the universal properties of this emerging class of architectures for continuous-time sequence modeling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Model Selection and Parameter Estimation for Multidimensional Gaussian Mixture Models with a Common Covariance Matrix

We study model-order selection and component-mean estimation for multidimensional Gaussian mixture models with a known common covariance matrix. Using empirical characteristic-function measurements, we construct Fourier covariance matrices whose population counterparts have rank equal to the number of mixture components. We establish a minimax lower bound showing that distinguishing a separated $k$-component mixture from the class of $(k-1)$-component mixtures requires $Ω(Δ^{-(4k-4)})$ samples. We then develop an oracle spectral-thresholding estimator with a sufficient sample size of order $Δ^{-(8k-8)}$ for fixed $k$, together with a practical singular-value-ratio estimator. Given the model order, we estimate the component means by score-initialized gradient descent on a MUSIC-type projection objective. Under an explicit sample-size condition, a qualifying sample initialization lies in a certified attraction region with high probability, after which the iterates converge linearly. For fixed positive component separation, the resulting mean estimates achieve the parametric rate $\mathcal{O}_p(n^{-1/2})$. Numerical experiments demonstrate competitive accuracy and lower computational cost than expectation-maximization across a range of multidimensional settings.

stat.ML↗