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46 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Redefining Stablecoins from Nominal to Real Value: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

Stablecoins, typically pegged to fiat currencies, cannot achieve true stability because they inherit fluctuations in the underlying unit of account. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a stablecoin pegged to the Maximum Likelihood Value (MLV), a newly defined unit of account derived as the most probable configuration of latent real-value movements that explains observed nominal-value (price) changes. Grounded in inferential statistics and modern portfolio theory, MLV represents the most stable unit of account, as it enforces a zero real return on the minimum-variance portfolio. Empirical results confirm the operational viability of an MLV-pegged stablecoin: MLV can be computed in real time from 500 asset price series and improves annualized returns and Sharpe ratios while substantially reducing turnover in portfolio optimization.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

When Can We Work in Embedding Space? What Text Embeddings Preserve

When do text embeddings work as inputs to empirical analysis? Their use rests on an assumption: that we can trade text for its low-dimensional embedding, and lose little in doing so. I make that assumption precise under a generative model in which documents are mixtures of latent topics. I study two uses---clustering units in embedding space and controlling for high-dimensional text. A cluster of embeddings is a set of documents with similar topic mixtures; controlling for the embedding is equivalent to controlling for the topic mixture, so validity reduces to whether that mixture captures the confounding. In an application to 363 U.S. metropolitan areas, embedding-based clusters of LLM-generated economic descriptions recover interpretable economic archetypes and separate local employment dynamics more sharply than clustering on model residuals, or on a curated set of industry and demographic covariates.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Foundation models for electricity price forecasting and battery arbitrage: Can they replace market-specific forecasting models?

Foundation models promise accurate forecasts with little or no task-specific training, but whether they can replace models designed specifically for electricity price forecasting remains unclear. We compare nine variants from five foundation model families, evaluated in zero-shot mode, with two state-of-the-art electricity price forecasting benchmarks in Germany, Poland, and Spain over 2021-2025. Their performance is assessed in terms of point and probabilistic forecasting accuracy, as well as economic value in battery energy storage arbitrage. Only the TabPFN models consistently and significantly outperform the benchmarks across all three markets and all statistical measures. However, this statistical dominance does not translate directly into economic dominance: TabPFN performs best under unlimited bids and riskier quantile-based strategies, whereas the Distributional Deep Neural Network benchmark is more profitable when risk tolerance is lower. Thus, foundation models cannot universally replace market-specific models, and their value depends on both model architecture and the decision problem.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Uniform Pricing for Multi-Interval Dispatch without Make-Whole Uplifts

In a network with ramp-limited generators and inaccurate net-demand forecasts, practical rolling-window dispatch can drive locational marginal prices (LMPs) below generators' bid-in offers. In such cases, out-of-market (OOM) settlements are used to compensate generators and maintain dispatch-following incentives, but OOM can have negative consequences, including nontransparent real-time price signals, discriminatory compensation, and incentives for untruthful bidding. This paper presents an optimal uniform pricing rule that minimizes demand payments, eliminates OOM make-whole payments, preserves LMP-based congestion charges, and ensures revenue adequacy. We derive the proposed pricing rule in closed form and relate it to existing pricing schemes. Numerical comparisons demonstrate favorable generator profits and reduced price volatility. However, higher generator profits are accompanied by increased demand payments, reflecting the in-market, uniform allocation of ramping costs while preserving the LMP-based congestion charges widely used in real-time market settlements. The numerical results also show that, under LMP with OOM settlement, a price-taking generator has an incentive to inflate its offer, whereas this incentive is absent under the proposed pricing rule within the tested bid range.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits: Bridging Uplift Modeling and Sequential Decision-Making

Treatment allocation under budget constraints is a central challenge in digital advertising. The standard approach trains an offline uplift model on historical data, then solves a constrained optimization to allocate budget. This fails in cold-start settings where little historical data exists. We propose Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits (BCCB), an online framework that learns which users respond to ads while simultaneously spending the budget. BCCB unifies three components: learning individual-level treatment effects, exploring users whose response is uncertain, and pacing the budget over time. We derive the per-arrival decision rule as the KKT condition of a Lagrangian relaxation of the budgeted causal-allocation objective, providing a principled foundation for the algorithm. We evaluate on the Criteo Uplift dataset using 20 random seeds with paired statistical tests. Our central finding is a data-efficiency crossover at n = 7,500 historical observations (paired one-sided t-test, p = 0.043): below this threshold, offline pipelines either fail or produce unreliable allocations, while BCCB operates from the first user. BCCB exhibits 2-4x lower run-to-run variance than offline methods and outperforms all four online baselines (Thompson Sampling, budgeted Thompson Sampling, HTE Greedy, and Uplifting Bandits) at every budget level tested (p < 0.001). These results give practitioners a concrete decision rule for choosing between offline and online paradigms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

AI-Generated Measurements for Identification and Inference with Missing Data: A Weak Shadow Variable Approach

Across business and social science applications, outcomes are often missing in ways that depend on the unobserved outcomes themselves. In service systems, for example, whether a customer submits a rating depends on the rating they would have provided. Such missing-not-at-random (MNAR) mechanisms make population quantities difficult to identify without strong assumptions on the observation process. Meanwhile, rich unstructured data, such as customer interaction histories, are increasingly available and can be used to construct structured measurements using tools such as large language models (LLMs). In this work, we develop an assumption-lean partial identification framework that uses such measurements as weak shadow variables, defined as outcome-informative proxies that are conditionally independent of missingness given the true outcome and observed covariates. Importantly, they need not accurately predict missing outcomes or satisfy the completeness requirement in the classical shadow variable literature. For identification, we characterize sharp bounds on population quantities through a pair of linear programs. For estimation and inference, we propose a localized penalized estimator that remains feasible under sampling error, and a subsampling algorithm for constructing confidence intervals. In semi-synthetic experiments using real customer-service dialogues, weak-shadow-variable intervals are about 89\% narrower than those without auxiliary information, while their midpoints have around 41\% lower estimation error than classical MNAR methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Content Exploration Beyond the Feed: Creator Supply and the Shared Corpus

Industrial recommenders give new content initial views through budgeted exploration, then use early performance to decide further delivery. On many short-video platforms, exploration is the primary way new videos reach viewers. Viewer-side tests measure consumption; the published budget objectives we review omit creator response. We analyze four experiments on a major short-video platform. An eight-month creator ablation finds production exploration raises videos posted per creator by 8.55% and creators posting at least once by 7.10% relative to a minimal floor. A budget-matched reallocation raises creator participation with no detectable short-run viewer-side change. A year-long viewer ablation finds 1.74% more video views but 2.13% less view time. A delivered view creates immediate feed value, can trigger organic take-up, and can induce creator supply. Take-up and supply replenish a shared corpus, creating two measurement limits. Viewer-side A/B tests cancel the corpus effect when both arms consume the same corpus. Giving each arm its own corpus avoids cancellation, but turnover still controls the horizon. If the corpus turns over at rate w per posting cycle, a t-cycle experiment expresses at most wt of the eventual corpus effect. More users reduce noise but do not speed turnover. Before the corpus path visibly bends, data cannot distinguish a modest fast effect from an arbitrarily large slow one, so a valid confidence interval may lack a finite upper endpoint. As predicted, the three-week co-diverted experiment cannot determine the sign of the eventual corpus effect. Within the window, it identifies the direct feed effect, and an exploratory cohort analysis detects organic lift after exploration ends. The experiments establish a positive creator response, measure the gross corpus flow visible within three weeks, and show the design and duration needed to identify total value.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2026

CaRL-EM: Cost-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Entity Matching with LLMs

Entity matching (EM) requires fine-grained contextual understanding and domain knowledge. Recent work shows that large language models (LLMs) can serve as strong matchers across domains, but most methods either make independent pairwise decisions or rely on manually designed composite pipelines, thus lacking flexibility in realistic multi-candidate settings. At the same time, they typically ignore inference cost at scale. We formulate LLM-based EM with candidates as a cost-aware sequential decision problem and propose CaRL-EM, a reinforcement learning controller that manages LLM operations. Given the state of an anchor record, its candidate set, and the cost, CaRL-EM adaptively chooses among different operators (Match/Compare/Select/Decide) and model capacities to maximize a quality-cost objective. The policy interacts with abstract operators, allowing the same controller to be reused with different underlying LLM backends at inference time without retraining. Experiments on 7 benchmarks show that CaRL-EM (i) learns to dynamically plan the usage of inexpensive and expensive operators based on task complexity, (ii) achieves robust zero-shot transfer across diverse datasets and domains, and (iii) consistently achieves a better quality-cost trade-off than strong LLM-based baselines and manually designed pipelines, yielding a lower inference cost at comparable or higher quality.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Emergent Misalignment Is Not Magical

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on narrowly harmful datasets can lead to misalignment broadly, a phenomenon known as emergent misalignment (EM). EM poses a challenge for AI safety and our understanding of LLMs. Prior work often frames EM as an unexpected behavior, and explains it by appealing to general misalignment directions or anthropomorphizing it as acquiring an evil persona. However, the mechanisms behind these framings remain obscure. In this work, we show that EM is a predictable and data-dependent generalization phenomenon. By examining the base model's representation of EM training data and evaluation prompts, we find that evilness after EM training is highly predictable from representational distance: the closer an evaluation prompt is to training data centroid, the more evilness it elicits from EM models after training (with an average Spearman correlation of -0.73 across 12 model-dataset settings). Building upon this analysis, we further demystify EM by showing that (1) its effectiveness changes significantly based on training data format; (2) there is not a general misalignment direction that transfers across different EM models; (3) the effect of EM is fundamentally different from persona changes. Furthermore, we extend the EM generalization metric from a scalar distance to a dataset-specific generalization direction, which robustly predicts EM models' evilness under semantics-preserving prompt perturbations including appending random tokens and paraphrasing, where other methods do not reliably generalize.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

EM^2Mem: Event-Centric Multimodal Memory for Large Language Models

Multimodal memory offers a scalable interface for long-video question answering, but existing methods often retrieve captions, frames, transcripts, summaries, or graph facts as isolated fragments. Although searchable, such fragments are not generation-ready: language models must reconstruct cross-modal and temporal alignments at inference time, when context is limited and attribution is difficult. We propose EM^2Mem, an event-centric multimodal memory framework that binds heterogeneous evidence to event anchors during memory construction. Each event-indexed memory cell aligns multimodal records, temporal context, graph-linked relations, semantic facts, and provenance, enabling compact evidence readout over grounded multimodal events rather than modality-specific fragments. Across three long-video QA benchmarks, EM^2Mem improves average accuracy over the strongest memory baseline by 2.0, 2.4, and 3.7 points, improves strict event-level Top-5 evidence recall by 7.0 points, and reduces per-query latency by 4.67 times and total inference tokens by 63.66% (The code will be integrated into https://github.com/zjunlp/LightMem).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Reconstruction-Aware Cryo-EM Particle Picking

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) determines the structures of proteins and macromolecular assemblies at near-atomic resolution, and the final 3D reconstruction depends on extracting a clean particle stack from noisy micrographs. This extraction decomposes into three sub-tasks, namely particle picking, contamination removal, and 2D class selection. Each of them, however, is trained and evaluated in isolation, and none is optimized for the reconstruction. We instead integrate the three sub-tasks into a single pipeline posed against downstream reconstruction quality. We instantiate the pipeline with a state-of-the-art component for each sub-task, CryoTransformer picking permissively, MicrographCleaner masking contamination, and CryoSift selecting 2D classes by a continuous quality score, and close the loop with a fine-tuning step that returns the surviving particles to the picker. The pipeline achieves a better 3D resolution than every picker we compare. We also show that the best 2D F1 is not the best resolution, so particle selection is better treated as one reconstruction-aware pipeline judged by the map it delivers.

q-bio.BM↗

arXiv2026

Algorithmic Collusion by Large Language Models

We conduct experiments with algorithmic pricing agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs). In oligopoly settings, LLM-based pricing agents quickly and autonomously reach supracompetitive prices and profits. Variation in seemingly innocuous phrases in LLM instructions ("prompts") substantially influence the degree of supracompetitive pricing. We develop novel techniques for behavioral analysis of LLMs and use them to uncover price-war concerns as a contributing factor. Our results extend to auction settings. Our findings uncover unique challenges to any future regulation of LLM-based pricing agents, and AI-based pricing agents more broadly.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

APEX-EM: Non-Parametric Online Learning for Autonomous Agents via Structured Procedural-Episodic Experience Replay

LLM agents rerun full reasoning for every task, even one they solved moments earlier. We introduce \textbf{APEX-EM}, a non-parametric experience memory that stores complete procedural-episodic traces in a typed Procedural Knowledge Graph (PKG) and retrieves them through three channels: semantic search, structural-signature matching over abstract operation sequences, and graph traversal. A Plan-Retrieve-Generate-Iterate-Ingest (PRGII) workflow produces, quality-gates, and commits experiences, indexing both successes and failures so the agent learns what to reuse and what to avoid. No weights change during deployment. We evaluate on five benchmarks: BigCodeBench, KGQAGen-10k, HLE, Lifelong Agent Bench, and ALFWorld. Because prior work uses different backbones, we base our claims on same-backbone comparisons that hold model capability fixed. On held-out BigCodeBench transfer with a shared GPT-4o backbone, APEX-EM gains +7.6\,pp over the no-memory baseline, $3.3\times$ MemRL's +2.3\,pp under the identical setup. On Lifelong Agent Bench with a shared GPT-4o-mini backbone, it gains +1.4\,pp (OS) and +1.0\,pp (DB) cumulative success. On KGQAGen-10k, frozen memory transfers to a blind 1{,}079-question test split at 73.7\% versus 42.0\% with no memory, approaching an oracle handed the ground-truth subgraph (84.9\%). Across three Opus scales the memory gain stays at +27 to +32\,pp, so it adds to model capability rather than substituting for it. Component analysis shows no single mechanism dominates: teacher feedback is negligible for code but adds +10.3\,pp on structured queries, structural signatures give $3.3\times$ the transfer of semantic-only retrieval, and within-epoch iteration recovers most of the gain when rich feedback is unavailable. These results argue for modular memory composed per domain.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

On the Complexity of Bayesian Signal Processing

We develop a computational framework for Bayesian decision-making. We show that as long as no action is optimal in every state, Bayes-optimal choice is intractable. This hardness need not arise from large action, state, or signal spaces, nor from a complicated represented utility function: extracting enough information from a hard-to-interpret signal to act optimally can itself be computationally hard. We also characterize tractability across approximation notions and identify their sources of difficulty. Under the probably approximately correct criterion, sample-based Bayesian learning is tractable if and only if the signal support is bounded. Our results provide justifications for bounded rationality, costly Bayesian inference, and sample-based Bayesian learning.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

From the Social Choice Problem to a Collusion-Proof Tendering Mechanism for Dynamic Stochastic Projects

The VCG family and the AGV mechanism are two classical approaches to efficient implementation in the static social choice problem. In 2024, Csóka et al. showed that AGV has critical weaknesses. In contrast, the transferable-utility Guaranteed Utility Mechanism (TU-GUM) retains all the standard desirable properties of AGV while adding further ones, including collusion-proofness, because it implements efficiency in Guaranteed Utility Equilibrium. TU-GUM also applies to a more general dynamic setting with multiple extensions. Moreover, TU-GUM is a special case of an even more general and robust mechanism that combines contingent first-price tendering with the coordinated execution of dynamic stochastic multi-agent projects through a surprisingly simple rule. This paper summarizes and connects existing results from a different perspective, with some minor new observations.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

Mechanism Design for Alignment and Control

We develop a framework for mechanism design with AI agents whose alignment (preferences) and capabilities (feasible actions and information) are unknown. We want such agents to act on our behalf so mechanisms must incentivize both honesty and obedience. A one-sided imitation structure---capabilities can be concealed but not counterfeited---yields a revelation principle, a characterization of implementable policies via nested cyclical monotonicity, and conditions under which eliciting higher-order beliefs can discipline multiple agents. We apply our framework to stylized examples of (i) sandbagging in which a more capable agent pretends to be less capable; (ii) an alignment--interpretability trade-off, where the two are substitutes in the instrument but complements in value; (iii) discipline via peer scoring; (iv) coupling rewards to induce competition among multiple agents; and (v) scalable oversight and reward shaping.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

Reinforcement Learning Can Amplify Emergent Misalignment from Harmless Rewards

Emergent misalignment (EM) is the surprising tendency of language models to become broadly misaligned after fine-tuning on narrowly misaligned examples. While EM has been extensively studied in the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) setting, evidence that it also arises from reinforcement learning (RL) is limited to large, closed-source models, leaving the phenomenon expensive to study and difficult to reproduce. We characterize EM from RL in small, off-the-shelf open-weight models along three axes. First, we show that rewarding narrow, overtly misaligned behavior produces substantially higher general-domain misalignment than sample-matched SFT. Second, we show that EM from RL can be induced by reward signals that could plausibly arise naturally, such as unpopular aesthetic preferences or poor rhetorical appeals. Third, we evaluate in-training mitigations developed for SFT-induced EM and find that they broadly transfer, with preventive steering with persona vectors, interleaving safety data and inoculation prompting all performing well.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Scale-robust Auctions

We study auctions that are robust at any scale, i.e., they can be applied to sell both expensive and cheap items and achieve the best multiplicative approximation of the optimal revenue in the worst case. We first show that it is without loss of optimality to restrict attention to scale-invariant mechanisms whenever the family of possible distributions is closed under every positive rescaling. This conclusion uses no regularity or other distributional shape restriction. We then solve the two-agent, single-item problem with values drawn i.i.d. from an unknown regular distribution when only a high value bidder can receive a positive allocation. The robustly optimal mechanism in this class randomizes between the second-price auction, with probability approximately 0.806, and a markup auction that offers the item to the highest-valued bidder at a price equal to 2.447 times the second-highest value. Its worst-case approximation ratio is approximately 1.907.

cs.GT↗