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arXiv · 1705.03078

An Anthropic Argument against the Future Existence of Superintelligent Artificial Intelligence

Toby Pereira
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Abstract

This paper uses anthropic reasoning to argue for a reduced likelihood that superintelligent AI will come into existence in the future. To make this argument, a new principle is introduced: the Super-Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSSA), building on the Self-Sampling Assumption (SSA) and the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA). SSA uses as its sample the relevant observers, whereas SSSA goes further by using observer-moments. SSSSA goes further still and weights each sample proportionally, according to the size of a mind in cognitive terms. SSSSA is required for human observer-samples to be typical, given by how much non-human animals outnumber humans. Given SSSSA, the assumption that humans experience typical observer-samples relies on a future where superintelligent AI does not dominate, which in turn reduces the likelihood of it being created at all.

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Toby Pereira. 2017-05-08. An Anthropic Argument against the Future Existence of Superintelligent Artificial Intelligence. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.03078

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