Quantile LASSO with changepoints in panel data models applied to option pricing

Matúš Maciak

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 1909.10271

Quantile LASSO with changepoints in panel data models applied to option pricing

Matúš Maciak

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Panel data are modern statistical tools which are commonly used in all kinds of econometric problems under various regularity assumptions. The panel data models with changepoints are introduced together with atomic pursuit methods and they are applied to estimate the underlying option price function. Robust estimates and complex insight into the data are both achieved by adopting the quantile LASSO approach. The final model is produced in a fully data-driven manner in just one single modeling step. In addition, the arbitrage-free scenarios are obtained by introducing a set of well defined linear constraints. The final estimate is, under some reasonable assumptions, consistent with respect to the model estimation and the changepoint detection performance. The finite sample properties are investigated in a simulation study and proposed methodology is applied for the Apple call option pricing problem.

Explore related subjects

math.ST stat.TH

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Matúš Maciak. 2019-09-23. Quantile LASSO with changepoints in panel data models applied to option pricing. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.10271

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

A note on the distribution of the partial correlation coefficient with nonparametrically estimated marginal regressions

There has been much interest in the nonparametric testing of conditional independence in the econometric and statistical literature, but the simplest and potentially most useful method, based on the sample partial correlation, seems to have been overlooked, its distribution only having been investigated in some simple parametric instances. The present note shows that an easy to apply permutation test based on the sample partial correlation with nonparametrically estimated marginal regressions has good large and small sample properties.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Instance-Log-Optimality of Portfolio-Based E-Processes and their Sequential Hypothesis Tests

We consider the problem of sequential hypothesis testing using $e$-processes. For a rich class of composite testing problems---which include bounded mean testing, equal mean testing for bounded random tuples, and some key ingredients of two-sample and independence testing as special cases---we show that any $e$-process satisfying a certain sublinear regret bound is asymptotically and almost surely instance-log-optimal for a composite alternative. This is a strong notion of optimality that has not previously been established for the aforementioned problems, and we provide explicit test supermartingales and $e$-processes satisfying this notion in a more general case. Furthermore, we derive matching lower and upper bounds on the expected rejection time in the high-confidence regime for the resulting sequential tests in all of these cases. The proofs of these results make weak, algorithm-agnostic moment assumptions and rely on a proof technique involving the aforementioned regret and a family of numeraire portfolios. Finally, we discuss how all of these theorems hold in a distribution-uniform sense, a notion of log-optimality that is stronger still and seems to be new to the literature.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Common Drivers in Sparsely Interacting Hawkes Processes

We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the actors in the network, and also local parameters specific for each actor. We derive rates of convergence for all of the model parameters when both the number of actors and the time horizon tends to infinity. To prevent an exploding network, sparseness is assumed. We also discuss numerical aspects.

math.ST↗