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arXiv · 2004.14423

Impacts of California Proposition 47 on Crime in Santa Monica, CA

Jennifer Crodelle·Celeste Vallejo·Markus Schmidtchen·Chad M. Topaz·Maria R. D'Orsogna
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Abstract

We examine crime patterns in Santa Monica, California before and after passage of Proposition 47, a 2014 initiative that reclassified some non-violent felonies to misdemeanors. We also study how the 2016 opening of four new light rail stations, and how more community-based policing starting in late 2018, impacted crime. A series of statistical analyses are performed on reclassified (larceny, fraud, possession of narcotics, forgery, receiving/possessing stolen property) and non-reclassified crimes by probing publicly available databases from 2006 to 2019. We compare data before and after passage of Proposition 47, city-wide and within eight neighborhoods. Similar analyses are conducted within a 450 meter radius of the new transit stations. Reports of monthly reclassified crimes increased city-wide by approximately 15% after enactment of Proposition 47, with a significant drop observed in late 2018. Downtown exhibited the largest overall surge. The reported incidence of larceny intensified throughout the city. Two new train stations, including Downtown, reported significant crime increases in their vicinity after service began. While the number of reported reclassified crimes increased after passage of Proposition 47, those not affected by the new law decreased or stayed constant, suggesting that Proposition 47 strongly impacted crime in Santa Monica. Reported crimes decreased in late 2018 concurrent with the adoption of new policing measures that enhanced outreach and patrolling. These findings may be relevant to law enforcement and policy-makers. Follow-up studies needed to confirm long-term trends may be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic that drastically changed societal conditions.

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Jennifer Crodelle, Celeste Vallejo, Markus Schmidtchen, Chad M. Topaz, Maria R. D'Orsogna. 2020-04-29. Impacts of California Proposition 47 on Crime in Santa Monica, CA. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251199

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