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arXiv · 2006.07691

Synthetic Interventions

Anish Agarwal·Devavrat Shah·Dennis Shen
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Abstract

The synthetic controls (SC) methodology is a prominent tool for policy evaluation in panel data applications. Researchers commonly justify the SC framework with a low-rank matrix factor model that assumes the potential outcomes are described by low-dimensional unit and time specific latent factors. In the recent work of [Abadie '20], one of the pioneering authors of the SC method posed the question of how the SC framework can be extended to multiple treatments. This article offers one resolution to this open question that we call synthetic interventions (SI). Fundamental to the SI framework is a low-rank tensor factor model, which extends the matrix factor model by including a latent factorization over treatments. Under this model, we propose a generalization of the standard SC-based estimators. We prove the consistency for one instantiation of our approach and provide conditions under which it is asymptotically normal. Moreover, we conduct a representative simulation to study its prediction performance and revisit the canonical SC case study of [Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller '10] on the impact of anti-tobacco legislations by exploring related questions not previously investigated.

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Anish Agarwal, Devavrat Shah, Dennis Shen. 2024-08-24. Synthetic Interventions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.07691

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