Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2201.06647

An Entropy-Based Approach for Nonparametrically Testing Simple Probability Distribution Hypotheses

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a flexible and widely applicable nonparametric entropy-based testing procedure that can be used to assess the validity of simple hypotheses about a specific parametric population distribution. The testing methodology relies on the characteristic function of the population probability distribution being tested and is attractive in that, regardless of the null hypothesis being tested, it provides a unified framework for conducting such tests. The testing procedure is also computationally tractable and relatively straightforward to implement. In contrast to some alternative test statistics, the proposed entropy test is free from user-specified kernel and bandwidth choices, idiosyncratic and complex regularity conditions, and/or choices of evaluation grids. Several simulation exercises were performed to document the empirical performance of our proposed test, including a regression example that is illustrative of how, in some contexts, the approach can be applied to composite hypothesis-testing situations via data transformations. Overall, the testing procedure exhibits notable promise, exhibiting appreciable increasing power as sample size increases for a number of alternative distributions when contrasted with hypothesized null distributions. Possible general extensions of the approach to composite hypothesis-testing contexts, and directions for future work are also discussed.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Ron Mittelhammer, George Judge, Miguel Henry. 2022-01-17. An Entropy-Based Approach for Nonparametrically Testing Simple Probability Distribution Hypotheses. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10010005

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Ordinal Distributional Change and Conservative Transition Benchmarks: Measurement, Identification, and Inference

Repeated cross-sections reveal changes in ordinal distributions but not the transitions producing them. I axiomatically characterize a probability metric for ordinal change from threshold-crossing principles. On canonical rank distributions, the resulting metric coincides with Wasserstein--1; its classical transport representation measures minimum average threshold crossings and yields conservative transition benchmarks. With missing outcomes, I derive sharp identified sets for the discrepancy and benchmark plans. I develop finite-sample-valid projection inference using randomized Monte Carlo calibration and convergent global search. Applied to Arab Barometer data, the framework documents a robust shift toward broader and more regular remittance receipt in Lebanon. The discrepancy interval remains well separated from zero after allowing for item nonresponse and sampling uncertainty, while benchmark bounds provide strong numerical evidence that least-displacement restructuring excludes movement toward less frequent receipt and requires some reassignment from nonreceipt to recurrent receipt.

econ.EM

Eigenvalue-Decomposition Cost Denoising as an Alternative to Predict-then-Optimize for Shortest-Path Problems

Predict-then-optimize methods such as Smart "Predict, then Optimize" (SPO+) of Elmachtoub and Grigas (2022) learn a mapping from contextual features to unknown edge costs and then solve the induced combinatorial problem on the predicted costs. This approach is powerful but relies on the predictive model being well specified: when the true cost-generating process is nonlinear in the features and the predictor is linear, SPO+'s performance degrades as the misspecification grows. We propose and evaluate a structurally different remedy for a specific but common setting: when the decision-maker observes many noisy realizations of the same underlying cost process, the realized cost vectors themselves can be treated as a noisy signal and denoised directly, via eigenvalue decomposition (equivalently, Principal Component Analysis) of their covariance matrix, before ever invoking a predictive model. We instantiate this idea on the $5\times5$ grid shortest-path benchmark introduced by Elmachtoub and Grigas (2022), retaining only the top-$k$ eigenvectors of the training cost covariance matrix and projecting new noisy cost observations onto that subspace prior to solving with Dijkstra's (1959) algorithm. We find that the choice of $k$ is decisive: keeping only $k{=}2$ eigenvectors discards real signal and underperforms even the naive noisy-cost baseline, while setting $k{=}5$ to match the true latent feature dimension makes eigenvalue-denoised Dijkstra the best-performing method at every misspecification level tested, outperforming SPO+ by a wide margin under high misspecification.

econ.EM

Conditional-Moment Estimation and Inference in the BLP Model

The random-coefficient demand model of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) is commonly estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), using an unconditional moment restriction with a fixed set of instruments. Identification of the model, however, rests on a conditional moment restriction. The two are not equivalent: the unconditional restriction may admit additional parameter values. We construct a counterexample in which the model is identified by the conditional restriction yet standard GMM is not, even with the optimal instrument. Building directly on the identifying restriction, we propose a two-step estimator, following Ai and Chen (2003), that first estimates the relevant conditional expectations nonparametrically and then selects the structural parameters by a conditional-variance-weighted minimum-distance criterion; standard GMM is recovered as the special case of a linear projection onto finitely many instruments. We establish root-T asymptotic normality for the proposed estimator, and we develop the theory for both kernel and series implementations of the first stage. The two implementations share a common limiting distribution, attaining the semiparametric efficiency bound. Simulation evidence illustrates the consequences of the identification gap and demonstrates that the proposed estimator outperforms standard GMM in finite samples.

econ.EM