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arXiv · 2203.03279

Evaluating State of the Art, Forecasting Ensembles- and Meta-learning Strategies for Model Fusion

Pieter Cawood·Terence van Zyl
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Abstract

Techniques of hybridisation and ensemble learning are popular model fusion techniques for improving the predictive power of forecasting methods. With limited research that instigates combining these two promising approaches, this paper focuses on the utility of the Exponential-Smoothing-Recurrent Neural Network (ES-RNN) in the pool of base models for different ensembles. We compare against some state of the art ensembling techniques and arithmetic model averaging as a benchmark. We experiment with the M4 forecasting data set of 100,000 time-series, and the results show that the Feature-based Forecast Model Averaging (FFORMA), on average, is the best technique for late data fusion with the ES-RNN. However, considering the M4's Daily subset of data, stacking was the only successful ensemble at dealing with the case where all base model performances are similar. Our experimental results indicate that we attain state of the art forecasting results compared to N-BEATS as a benchmark. We conclude that model averaging is a more robust ensemble than model selection and stacking strategies. Further, the results show that gradient boosting is superior for implementing ensemble learning strategies.

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Pieter Cawood, Terence van Zyl. 2022-03-07. Evaluating State of the Art, Forecasting Ensembles- and Meta-learning Strategies for Model Fusion. https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.03279

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