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arXiv · 2205.04619

Risk Preferences of Learning Algorithms

Andreas Haupt·Aroon Narayanan
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Abstract

Agents' learning from feedback shapes economic outcomes, and many economic decision-makers today employ learning algorithms to make consequential choices. This note shows that a widely used learning algorithm, $\varepsilon$-Greedy, exhibits emergent risk aversion: it prefers actions with lower variance. When presented with actions of the same expectation, under a wide range of conditions, $\varepsilon$-Greedy chooses the lower-variance action with probability approaching one. This emergent preference can have wide-ranging consequences, ranging from concerns about fairness to homogenization, and holds transiently even when the riskier action has a strictly higher expected payoff. We discuss two methods to correct this bias. The first method requires the algorithm to reweight data as a function of how likely the actions were to be chosen. The second requires the algorithm to have optimistic estimates of actions for which it has not collected much data. We show that risk-neutrality is restored with these corrections.

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Andreas Haupt, Aroon Narayanan. 2023-12-12. Risk Preferences of Learning Algorithms. https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.04619

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