Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2302.10480

Climate Model Driven Seasonal Forecasting Approach with Deep Learning

Alper Unal·Busra Asan·Ismail Sezen·Bugra Yesilkaynak·Yusuf Aydin·Mehmet Ilicak·Gozde Unal
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Understanding seasonal climatic conditions is critical for better management of resources such as water, energy and agriculture. Recently, there has been a great interest in utilizing the power of artificial intelligence methods in climate studies. This paper presents a cutting-edge deep learning model (UNet++) trained by state-of-the-art global CMIP6 models to forecast global temperatures a month ahead using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. ERA5 dataset was also used for finetuning as well performance analysis in the validation dataset. Three different setups (CMIP6; CMIP6 + elevation; CMIP6 + elevation + ERA5 finetuning) were used with both UNet and UNet++ algorithms resulting in six different models. For each model 14 different sequential and non-sequential temporal settings were used. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) analysis revealed that UNet++ with CMIP6 with elevation and ERA5 finetuning model with "Year 3 Month 2" temporal case provided the best outcome with an MAE of 0.7. Regression analysis over the validation dataset between the ERA5 data values and the corresponding AI model predictions revealed slope and $R^2$ values close to 1 suggesting a very good agreement. The AI model predicts significantly better than the mean CMIP6 ensemble between 2016 and 2021. Both models predict the summer months more accurately than the winter months.

Explore related subjects

cs.LGcs.AIcs.CVphysics.ao-ph

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Alper Unal, Busra Asan, Ismail Sezen, Bugra Yesilkaynak, Yusuf Aydin, Mehmet Ilicak, Gozde Unal. 2023-02-21. Climate Model Driven Seasonal Forecasting Approach with Deep Learning. https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.10480

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Online Regularized Statistical Learning in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space With Non-Stationary Data

We study recursive regularized learning algorithms in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with non-stationary online data streams. We introduce the concept of a random Tikhonov regularization path and decompose the tracking error of the algorithm's output for the regularization path into random difference equations in RKHS. We show that the tracking error vanishes in mean square and almost surely if the regularization path is slowly time-varying. Then, leveraging the monotonicity of inverse operators and the spectral decomposition of compact operators, and introducing the RKHS persistence of excitation condition, we develop a dominated convergence method to prove the mean square and almost sure consistency between the regularization path and the unknown function to be learned. Especially, for independent and non-identically distributed data streams, the mean square and almost sure consistency between the algorithm's output and the unknown function is achieved if the input data's marginal probability measures are slowly time-varying and the average measure over each fixed-length time period is uniformly above a strictly positive finite Borel measure.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Reflective Policy Optimization

On-policy reinforcement learning methods, like Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), often demand extensive data per update, leading to sample inefficiency. This paper introduces Reflective Policy Optimization (RPO), a novel on-policy extension that amalgamates past and future state-action information for policy optimization. This approach empowers the agent for introspection, allowing modifications to its actions within the current state. Theoretical analysis confirms that policy performance is monotonically improved and contracts the solution space, consequently expediting the convergence procedure. Empirical results demonstrate RPO's feasibility and efficacy in two reinforcement learning benchmarks, culminating in superior sample efficiency. The source code of this work is available at https://github.com/Edgargan/RPO.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Transductive Off-policy Proximal Policy Optimization

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a popular model-free reinforcement learning algorithm, esteemed for its simplicity and efficacy. However, due to its inherent on-policy nature, its proficiency in harnessing data from disparate policies is constrained. This paper introduces a novel off-policy extension to the original PPO method, christened Transductive Off-policy PPO (ToPPO). Herein, we provide theoretical justification for incorporating off-policy data in PPO training and prudent guidelines for its safe application. Our contribution includes a novel formulation of the policy improvement lower bound for prospective policies derived from off-policy data, accompanied by a computationally efficient mechanism to optimize this bound, underpinned by assurances of monotonic improvement. Comprehensive experimental results across six representative tasks underscore ToPPO's promising performance.

cs.LG↗