Accurate Prediction of Global Mean Temperature through Data Transformation Techniques

Abstract

It is important to predict how the Global Mean Temperature (GMT) will evolve in the next few decades. The ability to predict historical data is a necessary first step toward the actual goal of making long-range forecasts. This paper examines the advantage of statistical and simpler Machine Learning (ML) methods instead of directly using complex ML algorithms and Deep Learning Neural Networks (DNN). Often neglected data transformation methods prior to applying different algorithms have been used as a means of improving predictive accuracy. The GMT time series is treated both as a univariate time series and also cast as a regression problem. Some steps of data transformations were found to be effective. Various simple ML methods did as well or better than the more well-known ones showing merit in trying a large bouquet of algorithms as a first step. Fifty-six algorithms were subject to Box-Cox, Yeo-Johnson, and first-order differencing and compared with the absence of them. Predictions for the annual GMT testing data were better than that published so far, with the lowest RMSE value of 0.02 $^\circ$C. RMSE for five-year mean GMT values for the test data ranged from 0.00002 to 0.00036 $^\circ$C.