Risk-Aware Objective-Based Forecasting in Inertia Management

Abstract

The objective-based forecasting considers the asymmetric and non-linear impacts of forecasting errors on decision objectives, thus improving the effectiveness of its downstream decision-making process. However, existing objective-based forecasting methods are risk-neutral and not suitable for tasks like power system inertia management and unit commitment, of which decision-makers are usually biased toward risk aversion in practice. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a generic risk-aware objective-based forecasting method. It enables decision-makers to customize their forecasting with different risk preferences. The equivalence between the proposed method and optimization under uncertainty (stochastic/robust optimization) is established for the first time. Case studies are carried out on a Great Britain 2030 power system with system operational data from National Grid. The results show that the proposed model with deterministic optimization can approximate the performance of stochastic programming or robust optimization at only a fraction of their computational cost.