AI Foundation Models for Weather and Climate: Applications, Design, and Implementation

S. Karthik Mukkavilli; Daniel Salles Civitarese; Johannes Schmude; Johannes Jakubik; Anne Jones; Nam Nguyen; Christopher Phillips; Sujit Roy; Shraddha Singh; Campbell Watson; Raghu Ganti; Hendrik Hamann; Udaysankar Nair; Rahul Ramachandran; Kommy Weldemariam

arXiv · 2309.10808

AI Foundation Models for Weather and Climate: Applications, Design, and Implementation

S. Karthik Mukkavilli·Daniel Salles Civitarese·Johannes Schmude·Johannes Jakubik·Anne Jones·Nam Nguyen·Christopher Phillips·Sujit Roy·Shraddha Singh·Campbell Watson·Raghu Ganti·Hendrik Hamann·Udaysankar Nair·Rahul Ramachandran·Kommy Weldemariam

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Abstract

Machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored in understanding the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere and furthering weather forecasting. There has been increasing interest from technology companies, government institutions, and meteorological agencies in building digital twins of the Earth. Recent approaches using transformers, physics-informed machine learning, and graph neural networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on relatively narrow spatiotemporal scales and specific tasks. With the recent success of generative artificial intelligence (AI) using pre-trained transformers for language modeling and vision with prompt engineering and fine-tuning, we are now moving towards generalizable AI. In particular, we are witnessing the rise of AI foundation models that can perform competitively on multiple domain-specific downstream tasks. Despite this progress, we are still in the nascent stages of a generalizable AI model for global Earth system models, regional climate models, and mesoscale weather models. Here, we review current state-of-the-art AI approaches, primarily from transformer and operator learning literature in the context of meteorology. We provide our perspective on criteria for success towards a family of foundation models for nowcasting and forecasting weather and climate predictions. We also discuss how such models can perform competitively on downstream tasks such as downscaling (super-resolution), identifying conditions conducive to the occurrence of wildfires, and predicting consequential meteorological phenomena across various spatiotemporal scales such as hurricanes and atmospheric rivers. In particular, we examine current AI methodologies and contend they have matured enough to design and implement a weather foundation model.

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S. Karthik Mukkavilli, Daniel Salles Civitarese, Johannes Schmude, Johannes Jakubik, Anne Jones, Nam Nguyen, Christopher Phillips, Sujit Roy, Shraddha Singh, Campbell Watson, Raghu Ganti, Hendrik Hamann, Udaysankar Nair, Rahul Ramachandran, Kommy Weldemariam. 2023-09-20. AI Foundation Models for Weather and Climate: Applications, Design, and Implementation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.10808

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