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arXiv · 2310.08406

Tightening Bounds on Probabilities of Causation By Merging Datasets

Numair Sani·Atalanti A. Mastakouri
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Abstract

Probabilities of Causation (PoC) play a fundamental role in decision-making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions, in the absence of which only bounds can be derived. Existing work to further tighten these bounds by leveraging extra information either provides numerical bounds, symbolic bounds for fixed dimensionality, or requires access to multiple datasets that contain the same treatment and outcome variables. However, in many clinical, epidemiological and public policy applications, there exist external datasets that examine the effect of different treatments on the same outcome variable, or study the association between covariates and the outcome variable. These external datasets cannot be used in conjunction with the aforementioned bounds, since the former may entail different treatment assignment mechanisms, or even obey different causal structures. Here, we provide symbolic bounds on the PoC for this challenging scenario. We focus on combining either two randomized experiments studying different treatments, or a randomized experiment and an observational study, assuming causal sufficiency. Our symbolic bounds work for arbitrary dimensionality of covariates and treatment, and we discuss the conditions under which these bounds are tighter than existing bounds in literature. Finally, our bounds parameterize the difference in treatment assignment mechanism across datasets, allowing the mechanisms to vary across datasets while still allowing causal information to be transferred from the external dataset to the target dataset.

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BibTeXRIS

Numair Sani, Atalanti A. Mastakouri. 2023-10-12. Tightening Bounds on Probabilities of Causation By Merging Datasets. https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.08406

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