Distinguishing immunological and behavioral effects of vaccination

Mats Stensrud; Daniel Nevo; Uri Obolski

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arXiv · 2311.08335

Distinguishing immunological and behavioral effects of vaccination

Mats Stensrud·Daniel Nevo·Uri Obolski

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Abstract

The interpretation of vaccine efficacy estimands is subtle, even in randomized trials designed to quantify immunological effects of vaccination. In this article, we introduce terminology to distinguish between different vaccine efficacy estimands and clarify their interpretations. This allows us to explicitly consider immunological and behavioural effects of vaccination, and establish that policy-relevant estimands can differ substantially from those commonly reported in vaccine trials. We further show that a conventional vaccine trial allows identification and estimation of different vaccine estimands under plausible conditions, if one additional post-treatment variable is measured. Specifically, we utilize a ``belief variable'' that indicates the treatment an individual believed they had received. The belief variable is similar to ``blinding assessment'' variables that are occasionally collected in placebo-controlled trials in other fields. We illustrate the relations between the different estimands, and their practical relevance, in numerical examples based on an influenza vaccine trial.

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Mats Stensrud, Daniel Nevo, Uri Obolski. 2023-11-14. Distinguishing immunological and behavioral effects of vaccination. https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08335

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