Multiple Instance Learning for Uplift Modeling

Abstract

Uplift modeling is widely used in performance marketing to estimate effects of promotion campaigns (e.g., increase of customer retention rate). Since it is impossible to observe outcomes of a recipient in treatment (e.g., receiving a certain promotion) and control (e.g., without promotion) groups simultaneously (i.e., counter-factual), uplift models are mainly trained on instances of treatment and control groups separately to form two models respectively, and uplifts are predicted by the difference of predictions from these two models (i.e., two-model method). When responses are noisy and the treatment effect is fractional, induced individual uplift predictions will be inaccurate, resulting in targeting undesirable customers. Though it is impossible to obtain the ideal ground-truth individual uplifts, known as Individual Treatment Effects (ITEs), alternatively, an average uplift of a group of users, called Average Treatment Effect (ATE), can be observed from experimental deliveries. Upon this, similar to Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) in which each training sample is a bag of instances, our framework sums up individual user uplift predictions for each bag of users as its bag-wise ATE prediction, and regularizes it to its ATE label, thus learning more accurate individual uplifts. Additionally, to amplify the fractional treatment effect, bags are composed of instances with adjacent individual uplift predictions, instead of random instances. Experiments conducted on two datasets show the effectiveness and universality of the proposed framework.