Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2402.00031

An Integrated Framework for Team Formation and Winner Prediction in the FIRST Robotics Competition: Model, Algorithm, and Analysis

Federico Galbiati·Ranier X. Gran·Brendan D. Jacques·Sullivan J. Mulhern·Chun-Kit Ngan
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This research work aims to develop an analytical approach for optimizing team formation and predicting team performance in a competitive environment based on data on the competitors' skills prior to the team formation. There are several approaches in scientific literature to optimize and predict a team's performance. However, most studies employ fine-grained skill statistics of the individual members or constraints such as teams with a set group of members. Currently, no research tackles the highly constrained domain of the FIRST Robotics Competition. This research effort aims to fill this gap by providing an analytical method for optimizing and predicting team performance in a competitive environment while allowing these constraints and only using metrics on previous team performance, not on each individual member's performance. We apply our method to the drafting process of the FIRST Robotics competition, a domain in which the skills change year-over-year, team members change throughout the season, each match only has a superficial set of statistics, and alliance formation is key to competitive success. First, we develop a method that could extrapolate individual members' performance based on overall team performance. An alliance optimization algorithm is developed to optimize team formation and a deep neural network model is trained to predict the winning team, both using highly post-processed real-world data. Our method is able to successfully extract individual members' metrics from overall team statistics, form competitive teams, and predict the winning team with 84.08% accuracy.

Explore related subjects

cs.LGcs.AIcs.RO

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Federico Galbiati, Ranier X. Gran, Brendan D. Jacques, Sullivan J. Mulhern, Chun-Kit Ngan. 2024-01-06. An Integrated Framework for Team Formation and Winner Prediction in the FIRST Robotics Competition: Model, Algorithm, and Analysis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.00031

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Online Regularized Statistical Learning in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space With Non-Stationary Data

We study recursive regularized learning algorithms in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with non-stationary online data streams. We introduce the concept of a random Tikhonov regularization path and decompose the tracking error of the algorithm's output for the regularization path into random difference equations in RKHS. We show that the tracking error vanishes in mean square and almost surely if the regularization path is slowly time-varying. Then, leveraging the monotonicity of inverse operators and the spectral decomposition of compact operators, and introducing the RKHS persistence of excitation condition, we develop a dominated convergence method to prove the mean square and almost sure consistency between the regularization path and the unknown function to be learned. Especially, for independent and non-identically distributed data streams, the mean square and almost sure consistency between the algorithm's output and the unknown function is achieved if the input data's marginal probability measures are slowly time-varying and the average measure over each fixed-length time period is uniformly above a strictly positive finite Borel measure.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Reflective Policy Optimization

On-policy reinforcement learning methods, like Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), often demand extensive data per update, leading to sample inefficiency. This paper introduces Reflective Policy Optimization (RPO), a novel on-policy extension that amalgamates past and future state-action information for policy optimization. This approach empowers the agent for introspection, allowing modifications to its actions within the current state. Theoretical analysis confirms that policy performance is monotonically improved and contracts the solution space, consequently expediting the convergence procedure. Empirical results demonstrate RPO's feasibility and efficacy in two reinforcement learning benchmarks, culminating in superior sample efficiency. The source code of this work is available at https://github.com/Edgargan/RPO.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Transductive Off-policy Proximal Policy Optimization

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a popular model-free reinforcement learning algorithm, esteemed for its simplicity and efficacy. However, due to its inherent on-policy nature, its proficiency in harnessing data from disparate policies is constrained. This paper introduces a novel off-policy extension to the original PPO method, christened Transductive Off-policy PPO (ToPPO). Herein, we provide theoretical justification for incorporating off-policy data in PPO training and prudent guidelines for its safe application. Our contribution includes a novel formulation of the policy improvement lower bound for prospective policies derived from off-policy data, accompanied by a computationally efficient mechanism to optimize this bound, underpinned by assurances of monotonic improvement. Comprehensive experimental results across six representative tasks underscore ToPPO's promising performance.

cs.LG↗