Characterising harmful data sources when constructing multi-fidelity surrogate models

Abstract

Surrogate modelling techniques have seen growing attention in recent years when applied to both modelling and optimisation of industrial design problems. These techniques are highly relevant when assessing the performance of a particular design carries a high cost, as the overall cost can be mitigated via the construction of a model to be queried in lieu of the available high-cost source. The construction of these models can sometimes employ other sources of information which are both cheaper and less accurate. The existence of these sources however poses the question of which sources should be used when constructing a model. Recent studies have attempted to characterise harmful data sources to guide practitioners in choosing when to ignore a certain source. These studies have done so in a synthetic setting, characterising sources using a large amount of data that is not available in practice. Some of these studies have also been shown to potentially suffer from bias in the benchmarks used in the analysis. In this study, we present a characterisation of harmful low-fidelity sources using only the limited data available to train a surrogate model. We employ recently developed benchmark filtering techniques to conduct a bias-free assessment, providing objectively varied benchmark suites of different sizes for future research. Analysing one of these benchmark suites with the technique known as Instance Space Analysis, we provide an intuitive visualisation of when a low-fidelity source should be used and use this analysis to provide guidelines that can be used in an applied industrial setting.