Macroeconomic Factors, Industrial Indexes and Bank Spread in Brazil

Carlos Alberto Durigan Junior; André Taue Saito; Daniel Reed Bergmann; Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto

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arXiv · 2405.10655

Macroeconomic Factors, Industrial Indexes and Bank Spread in Brazil

Carlos Alberto Durigan Junior·André Taue Saito·Daniel Reed Bergmann·Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto

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Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to Identify which macroe conomic factors and industrial indexes influenced the total Brazilian banking spread between March 2011 and March 2015. This paper considers subclassification of industrial activities in Brazil. Monthly time series data were used in multivariate linear regression models using Eviews (7.0). Eighteen variables were considered as candidates to be determinants. Variables which positively influenced bank spread are; Default, IPIs (Industrial Production Indexes) for capital goods, intermediate goods, du rable consumer goods, semi-durable and non-durable goods, the Selic, GDP, unemployment rate and EMBI +. Variables which influence negatively are; Consumer and general consumer goods IPIs, IPCA, the balance of the loan portfolio and the retail sales index. A p-value of 05% was considered. The main conclusion of this work is that the progress of industry, job creation and consumption can reduce bank spread. Keywords: Credit. Bank spread. Macroeconomics. Industrial Production Indexes. Finance.

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Carlos Alberto Durigan Junior, André Taue Saito, Daniel Reed Bergmann, Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto. 2024-05-17. Macroeconomic Factors, Industrial Indexes and Bank Spread in Brazil. https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.10655

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