DeepMedcast: A Deep Learning Method for Generating Intermediate Weather Forecasts among Multiple NWP Models

Atsushi Kudo

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arXiv · 2411.10010

DeepMedcast: A Deep Learning Method for Generating Intermediate Weather Forecasts among Multiple NWP Models

Atsushi Kudo

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Abstract

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers around the world operate a variety of NWP models. In addition, recent advances in AI-driven NWP models have further increased the availability of NWP outputs. While this expansion holds the potential to improve forecast accuracy, it raises a critical question: which prediction is the most plausible? If the NWP models have comparable accuracy, it is impossible to determine in advance which one is the best. Traditional approaches, such as ensemble or weighted averaging, combine multiple NWP outputs to produce a single forecast with improved accuracy. However, they often result in meteorologically unrealistic and uninterpretable outputs, such as the splitting of tropical cyclone centers or frontal boundaries into multiple distinct systems. To address this issue, we propose DeepMedcast, a deep learning method that generates intermediate forecasts between two or more NWP outputs. Unlike averaging, DeepMedcast provides predictions in which meteorologically significant features -- such as the locations of tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, fronts, and shear lines -- approximately align with the arithmetic mean of the corresponding features predicted by the input NWP models, without distorting meteorological structures. We demonstrate the capability of DeepMedcast through case studies and verification results, showing that it produces realistic and interpretable forecasts with higher accuracy than the input NWP models. By providing plausible intermediate forecasts, DeepMedcast can significantly contribute to the efficiency and standardization of operational forecasting tasks, including general, marine, and aviation forecasts.

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BibTeX RIS

Atsushi Kudo. 2025-06-22. DeepMedcast: A Deep Learning Method for Generating Intermediate Weather Forecasts among Multiple NWP Models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.10010

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