Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2501.09540

Convergence Rates of GMM Estimators with Nonsmooth Moments under Misspecification

Abstract

The asymptotic behavior of GMM estimators depends critically on whether the underlying moment condition model is correctly specified. Hong and Li (2023, Econometric Theory) showed that GMM estimators with nonsmooth (non-directionally differentiable) moment functions are at best $n^{1/3}$-consistent under misspecification. Through simulations, we verify the slower convergence rate of GMM estimators in such cases. For the two-step GMM estimator with an estimated weight matrix, our results align with theory. However, for the one-step GMM estimator with the identity weight matrix, the convergence rate remains $\sqrt{n}$, even under severe misspecification.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Byunghoon Kang, Seojeong Lee, Juha Song. 2025-01-16. Convergence Rates of GMM Estimators with Nonsmooth Moments under Misspecification. https://doi.org/10.22904/sje.2025.38.1.002

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Bounded Rationality in Central Bank Communication

This study explores the influence of FOMC sentiment on market expectations, focusing on cognitive differences between experts and non-experts. Using sentiment analysis of FOMC minutes, we integrate these insights into a bounded rationality model to examine the impact on inflation expectations. Results show that experts form more conservative expectations, anticipating FOMC stabilization actions, while non-experts react more directly to inflation concerns. A lead-lag analysis indicates that institutions adjust faster, though the gap with individual investors narrows in the short term. These findings highlight the need for tailored communication strategies to better align public expectations with policy goals.

econ.EM

Statistical Inference for Score Decompositions

We introduce inference methods for score decompositions, which partition scoring functions for predictive assessment into three interpretable components: miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty. Our estimation and inference relies on a linear recalibration of the forecasts and is applicable to general point forecasts such as means and quantiles due to its validity for non-smooth scoring functions. This approach ensures non-negative decomposition terms in finite samples, enables asymptotic inference under model misspecification, and establishes a direct connection to the classical Mincer-Zarnowitz regression. The resulting inference framework facilitates novel tests for equal linearized forecast calibration or discrimination, which yield three key advantages. They enhance the information content of predictive ability tests by decomposing scores, can improve detection power in scenarios where predictive differences are attributable to specific score components, and formally connect scoring-function-based evaluation to traditional calibration tests, such as financial backtests. Applications demonstrate the method's utility. We find that for survey inflation forecasts, discrimination abilities can differ significantly even when overall predictive ability does not. In an application to financial risk models, our tests provide deeper insights into the calibration and information content of volatility and Value-at-Risk forecasts. By disentangling forecast accuracy from backtest performance, the method exposes critical shortcomings in current banking regulation.

econ.EM

Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning

I propose Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning (NBPL) as a framework for uncertainty-aware treatment choice. The key observation is that welfare is fully determined by a reduced-form distribution, so uncertainty about optimal policies entirely reflects uncertainty about this distribution. NBPL places a Dirichlet process prior on the reduced-form distribution and uses the resulting posterior for both traditional policy choice and inference on optimal welfare and optimal treatment assignments. NBPL is computationally tractable: the default Bayesian-bootstrap implementation requires only exponential reweighting of the observations. I establish two theoretical properties. First, posterior welfare regret converges at the minimax-optimal rate, providing a novel policy-relevant analogue of posterior contraction rates. Second, posterior model selection across policy classes is consistent. I relate NBPL to existing policy learning approaches and illustrate using two empirical applications: the JTPA experiment and the bednet subsidy experiment. In both applications, decision-tree rules tend to yield higher optimal welfare than linear rules.

econ.EM