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arXiv · 2501.18665

BARNN: A Bayesian Autoregressive and Recurrent Neural Network

Dario Coscia·Max Welling·Nicola Demo·Gianluigi Rozza
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Abstract

Autoregressive and recurrent networks have achieved remarkable progress across various fields, from weather forecasting to molecular generation and Large Language Models. Despite their strong predictive capabilities, these models lack a rigorous framework for addressing uncertainty, which is key in scientific applications such as PDE solving, molecular generation and Machine Learning Force Fields. To address this shortcoming we present BARNN: a variational Bayesian Autoregressive and Recurrent Neural Network. BARNNs aim to provide a principled way to turn any autoregressive or recurrent model into its Bayesian version. BARNN is based on the variational dropout method, allowing to apply it to large recurrent neural networks as well. We also introduce a temporal version of the "Variational Mixtures of Posteriors" prior (tVAMP-prior) to make Bayesian inference efficient and well-calibrated. Extensive experiments on PDE modelling and molecular generation demonstrate that BARNN not only achieves comparable or superior accuracy compared to existing methods, but also excels in uncertainty quantification and modelling long-range dependencies.

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Dario Coscia, Max Welling, Nicola Demo, Gianluigi Rozza. 2025-07-18. BARNN: A Bayesian Autoregressive and Recurrent Neural Network. https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.18665

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