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arXiv · 2504.17741

Multi-messenger standard-siren cosmology for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors: forecasts considering observations of gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae

Tao Han·Jing-Fei Zhang·Xin Zhang
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Abstract

In the third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave (GW) detector era, GW multi-messenger observations for binary neutron star merger events can exert great impacts on exploring the cosmic expansion history. Extending the previous work, we explore the potential of 3G GW standard siren observations in cosmological parameter estimation by considering their associated electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, including $γ$-ray burst (GRB) coincidence observations by the Gravitational wave high-energy Electromagnetic Counterpart All-sky Monitor and GW-triggered target-of-opportunity observations of kilonovae by different optical survey projects. During an assumed 10-year observation, we predict that the number of detectable GW-kilonova events is $\sim 4900$ with redshifts below $\sim 0.4$ under GW network and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope in the $i$ band, which is three times more than that of GW-GRB detections. For the cosmological analysis, we find that with the inclusion of GW-kilonova detections, the constraints on cosmological parameters from GW-EM detections are significantly improved compared to those from GW-GRB detections. In particular, GW-EM detections can tightly constrain the Hubble constant with a precision ranging from $0.076\%$ to $0.034\%$. Moreover, GW multi-messenger observations could effectively break the cosmological parameter degeneracies generated by the mainstream EM observations, CMB+BAO+SN (CBS). The combination of CBS and GW-EM can tightly constrain the equation of state parameters of dark energy $w$ in the $w$CDM model and $w_0$ in the $w_0w_a$CDM model with precisions of $0.72\%$ and $0.99\%$, respectively, meeting the standard of precision cosmology. In conclusion, GW multi-messenger observations could play a crucial role in helping solve the Hubble tension and probing the fundamental nature of dark energy.

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Tao Han, Jing-Fei Zhang, Xin Zhang. 2026-01-08. Multi-messenger standard-siren cosmology for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors: forecasts considering observations of gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjc%2Fs10052-025-15114-9

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