Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2506.11879

Decadal sink-source shifts of forest aboveground carbon since 1988

Zhen Qian·Sebastian Bathiany·Teng Liu·Lana L. Blaschke·Hoong Chen Teo·Niklas Boers
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Forest ecosystems are vital to the global carbon cycle, yet their long-term aboveground carbon (AGC) dynamics remain uncertain. Here, we integrate multi-source satellite observations with probabilistic deep learning models to reconstruct a harmonized, uncertainty-aware global forest AGC record from 1988 to 2021 at 0.25-deg. We find that, although global forests sequestered 6.2 PgC, moist tropical and boreal forests have progressively transitioned toward carbon sources since the early 2000s. This shift coincides with a strengthening negative correlation between tropical AGC variability and atmospheric CO2 growth rates (r = -0.63 in 2011-2021), suggesting tropical forests increasingly modulate the global carbon cycle. Notably, in the Brazilian Amazon, the contribution of intact forests to the year-to-year variations in AGC losses increased from 33% in the 1990s to 76% in the 2010s, surpassing that of deforested areas (from 60% to 13%). Our findings highlight the vulnerability of carbon stocks in key biomes and provide a benchmark to track emerging sink-source shifts under anthropogenic climate change.

Explore related subjects

physics.geo-phcs.LG

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Zhen Qian, Sebastian Bathiany, Teng Liu, Lana L. Blaschke, Hoong Chen Teo, Niklas Boers. 2026-03-18. Decadal sink-source shifts of forest aboveground carbon since 1988. https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11879

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Parameter-Efficient Adaptation of Pre-Trained Vision Foundation Models for Active and Passive Seismic Data Denoising

The demand for high-resolution subsurface imaging and continuous Earth monitoring has driven rapid growth in active and passive seismic data from dense geophone deployments, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) arrays, and large-scale 2D and 3D surveys. This expansion makes complex noise suppression increasingly challenging, especially when signal fidelity must be preserved. Conventional supervised deep learning methods are often task-specific, require large paired datasets, and can suffer from domain shift under new acquisition conditions. Foundation models offer a promising alternative, but pre-training seismic foundation models from scratch requires massive domain-specific data and substantial computation. We propose an efficient framework that repurposes general-purpose Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) for geophysical tasks through Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning. The architecture uses a pre-trained VFM, a DINOv3 encoder, adapted with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to enable effective feature adaptation with few additional parameters. To improve robustness under unseen field conditions without ground truth, we introduce a kurtosis-guided unsupervised test-time adaptation module that updates only LoRA parameters during inference. This module self-calibrates the model to site-specific noise by identifying information-rich regions via kurtosis and performing self-training without labeled data. Experiments on public exploration seismic images and DAS vertical seismic profiling data from the Utah FORGE site show that the framework matches or outperforms domain-specific models. Tests on unseen cross-site data from a land survey in China and the Groß Schönebeck geothermal site in Germany further demonstrate strong generalization and effective signal-noise separation. These results highlight the potential of adapting pre-trained VFMs to data-intensive problems in exploration seismology.

physics.geo-ph↗
arXiv2026

Shallow-to-deep velocity model building via diffusion models-Part I: Method and Proof of concept

Seismic velocity model building (VMB) is fundamental for understanding subsurface structures. Traditional methods demand high-quality starting models and, also, remain limited in resolution in coverage and computationally intensive. Recent generative diffusion model-based approaches capture statistical priors to support traditional inversion methods, but these approaches do not account for the top to bottom progression of information (layer stripping) involved in surface recorded data, where deep velocity information depends on the shallow. To address this issue, we propose a depth-progressive diffusion framework that constructs velocity models incrementally from shallow to deep by propagating prior information. Our method trains on paired shallow-deep velocity patches with variable overlap and explicit depth encoding, integrating multiple geophysical constraints including well logs and seismic images (representing structural information). During inference, we synthesize overlapping depth slices using a progressive algorithm and merge them with Gaussian-weighted blending to eliminate boundary artifacts. This approach leverages both learned geological distributions and observed shallow priors while providing uncertainty quantification. Extensive numerical experiments on in-distribution tests and an out-of-distribution test demonstrate excellent VMB accuracy with a strong correlation between predicted uncertainty and actual errors. As a proof of concept, this part I employs idealized structural constraints derived from vertical reflectivity to validate the methodological framework. The companion paper (Part II) extends the approach to realistic structural constraints relying on migrated images with field data applications.

physics.geo-ph↗
arXiv2026

Shallow-to-deep velocity model building via diffusion models-Part II: Realistic scenarios

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) requires accurate initial velocity models to avoid cycle-skipping, but constructing such models remains challenging in practice. Building on the depth-progressive diffusion framework introduced in Part~I, which relied on idealized reflectivity constraints, this work adapts the methodology to realistic exploration scenarios. We replace perfect structural information with migration-derived attributes extracted from seismic images, and introduce smooth background velocity models from tomography as additional conditioning inputs. The framework jointly leverages background/migration velocity, migrated structural information, and sparse well measurements to synthesize high-resolution velocity models through depth-progressive generation. Validation on synthetic examples demonstrates superior accuracy compared to conventional interpolation and alternative deep learning methods, with generated models successfully initializing FWI and mitigating cycle-skipping even in complex geological structures. Field data confirms practical applicability: despite training on synthetic data, the method generalizes effectively to field conditions, producing velocity models with synthetic data response that nearly match observed seismic data. As a result, this framework establishes a practical pathway to deploy generative diffusion models for velocity model building under realistic constraints.

physics.geo-ph↗