arXiv subjects

Niklas Boers

Publications and source records attributed to Niklas Boers.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ClimTip-GML: A global bias-corrected and downscaled dataset for assessing impacts of climate tipping events

Assessing the impacts of future climate scenarios including tipping events of major Earth system components such as the Amazon rainforest (ARF) or the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), requires accurate and high-resolution simulations. Here, we present ClimTip-GML, the first globally bias-corrected and downscaled climate dataset for impact assessment of large-scale tipping scenarios, comprising eight key variables at 0.25° spatial resolution from three general circulation models (GCMs): CESM1-CAM5, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The dataset includes 100-year-long climate simulations with preindustrial and historical conditions, as well as scenarios at a +2°C warming level with and without tipping transitions of the AMOC or ARF. We apply generative machine learning (GML) techniques trained on reanalysis data to bias-correct and downscale the GCMs in a manner that is physically consistent across space, time, and all eight variables. Comprehensive validation shows substantially reduced biases, improved small-scale spatial variability, multivariate correlations, and consistent long-term climate responses to the external forcing and tipping events. The results hence permit substantially improved impact assessments of tipping transitions of the ARF and AMOC, directly informing mitigation and adaptation policies.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Disentangled Fingerprints suggest no historical weakening of Atlantic Overturning and Subpolar Gyre

The AMOC and the Subpolar Gyre are key components of the Earth's climate system, both potentially prone to destabilization and abrupt shifts under anthropogenic forcing.Given the strong influence of the AMOC and the SPG on global climate, detecting changes in their stability is of high importance, yet is hindered by the limited length of observational records.In the absence of long-term direct AMOC observations, several observation-based fingerprints of the AMOC have been proposed.However, existing fingerprints do not clearly distinguish between SPG and AMOC variability, instead reflecting an opaque mixture of dynamics from both systems.Here, we assess the performance of widely used AMOC fingerprints across CMIP6 models and compare them with statistically optimal fingerprints that we derive from sea surface temperature and salinity.We show that traditional AMOC fingerprints exhibit weak correlations with both AMOC and SPG strength.In contrast, our statistically optimal fingerprints, trained on pre-industrial control simulations, consistently outperform existing approaches across independent segments of piControl simulations and historical experiments.These fingerprints accurately reconstruct AMOC and SPG variability while minimizing overlap, enabling a clear separation between the two systems.Our results provide the first tailored observational fingerprints that robustly distinguish AMOC and SPG, demonstrating the potential of statistically optimized approaches to improve detection and attribution of changes in Atlantic circulation, including precursor signals of potential tipping behavior.Applying our approach to sea surface temperature observations, we find that our optimized fingerprints do not confirm the substantial AMOC weakening in the recent decades as suggested by traditional fingerprints, but also do not rule out a loss of stability.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Projected Neural Differential Equations for Learning Constrained Dynamics

Neural differential equations offer a powerful approach for learning dynamical systems from data. However, they do not inherently respect known constraints, such as conservation laws, that should be obeyed by the learned dynamics. It is well known that enforcing constraints in data-driven models can enhance their generalizability and numerical stability. In this paper, we introduce projected neural differential equations (PNDEs), a method for constraining neural differential equations based on projection of the predicted velocities onto the tangent space of the manifold that fulfills the constraint. In tests on several examples from different fields, including chaotic dynamical systems and power grid models, PNDEs outperform existing methods for constraining learned dynamics, require fewer hyperparameters, and are computationally more efficient. The proposed approach demonstrates potential for enhancing the modeling of constrained dynamical systems, particularly in domains where accuracy and reliability are essential.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Machine-Precision Prediction of Low-Dimensional Chaotic Systems from Noise-Free Data

Low-dimensional chaotic systems such as the Lorenz-63 model are commonly used to benchmark system-agnostic methods for learning dynamics from data. This study shows that learning from noise-free observations in such systems can be achieved up to machine precision: using ordinary least squares regression on high-degree polynomial features with 512-bit arithmetic, a system-agnostic method is introduced that matches the accuracy of standard 64-bit numerical ODE solvers using the systems' governing equations. For the Lorenz-63 system, the method achieves valid prediction times of 36 Lyapunov times, and even up to 105 Lyapunov times with favorable precision configurations, dramatically outperforming prior work, which reaches 13 Lyapunov times at most. The results are further validated on Thomas' Cyclically Symmetric Attractor, a non-polynomial chaotic system that is considerably more complex than the Lorenz-63 model, and similar results extend to higher dimensions using the spatiotemporally chaotic Lorenz-96 model. These findings suggest that forecasting low-dimensional chaotic systems from noise-free data is effectively a solved problem.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2026

Flexible generation of daily Earth system model projections across radiative forcing scenarios

Earth system model (ESM) projections of the climate system's response to anthropogenic forcing are central to assess the impacts of climate change and inform adaptation and mitigation policies. However, given their high computational cost, projections are only made for a limited set of standardized forcing scenarios with limited temporal extent, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the spatiotemporal resolution remains too low for direct impact assessments, and uncertainties cannot be comprehensively quantified. Recent data-driven models offer efficient and accurate high-resolution simulations for weather prediction, but cannot extrapolate to future greenhouse gas concentrations because they cannot capture the responses to unprecedented forcing, limiting their value for climate change projections. Here, we combine response theory with a tailored generative machine learning framework to address this challenge. Our approach extracts the physical forced response to radiative forcing from monthly low-resolution ESM fields, and uses this response to guide a generative model to infer consistent daily global high-resolution temperature and precipitation projections. Our probabilistic approach generalizes across ESMs and provides long-term, bias-corrected responses to radiative forcing at high spatiotemporal resolution. It efficiently generates large ensembles needed for uncertainty quantification, effectively fills the gaps between existing SSPs, and readily extends climate projections to 2300 and beyond. Our framework hence complements ESM projections by providing efficient, stable, and high spatiotemporal resolution long-term climate projection ensembles across emission scenarios, enabling detailed impact assessment and exploration of long-term climate commitment.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Fast Fourier Convolutional GAN for 30 m Clear-Sky Land Surface Temperature Gap-Free Reconstruction

Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) provides spatially comprehensive data that ground stations cannot match. However, its utility is frequently limited by severe data gaps due to the presence of clouds. As LST is essential for understanding land-atmosphere interactions, numerous methods have been proposed to address this challenge. Yet, the development of a scalable and adaptable pipeline for generating gap-free LST datasets and reconstructing cloud-contaminated pixels remains challenging. Moreover, the reconstruction of extensive missing regions in fine-spatial-resolution observations is particularly difficult. To address this challenge, we propose a Multimodal Fast Fourier Convolutional GAN for reconstructing cloud-contaminated pixels in fine-resolution (30 m) Landsat imagery to generate gap-free clear-sky LST products. The method leverages Fast Fourier Convolution to enable a global receptive field across the image, and is guided by a stack of data consisting of satellite observations and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Across all LST quantiles, the interquartile range of scene-averaged RMSE (computed over reconstructed pixels) is consistently between 0.8 K and 1.8 K. The proposed approach enables the recovery of extensive missing regions, including scenes with more than 70% cloud-induced gaps, while relying on auxiliary data that are readily available at a near-global scale.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Generating realistic global precipitation fields from modelled atmospheric circulation

Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved explicitly, but represented by parameterizations. These typically rely on resolving approximated but computationally expensive column-based physics, not accounting for interactions between locations. They struggle to capture fine-scale precipitation processes and introduce significant biases. We present a novel approach, based on generative machine learning, which integrates a conditional diffusion model with a UNet architecture to generate accurate, high-resolution (0.25°) global daily precipitation fields from a small set of prognostic atmospheric variables. Unlike traditional parameterizations, our framework efficiently produces ensemble predictions, capturing uncertainties in precipitation, and does not require fine-tuning by hand. We train our model on the ERA5 reanalysis and present a method that allows us to apply it to unseen ESM data, enabling fast generation of probabilistic forecasts and climate scenarios. By leveraging interactions between global prognostic variables, our approach provides an alternative parameterization scheme that mitigates biases present in the ESM precipitation while maintaining consistency with its large-scale (annual) trends. This work demonstrates that complex precipitation patterns can be learned directly from large-scale atmospheric variables, offering a computationally efficient method to obtain high-resolution precipitation without the cost of running the dynamical model at such high resolution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

WIND: Weather Inverse Diffusion for Zero-Shot Atmospheric Modeling

Deep learning has revolutionized weather forecasting, but many challenges remain, including climate modeling. Moreover, the current landscape remains fragmented: highly specialized models are typically trained individually for distinct tasks. To unify this landscape, we introduce WIND, a single pre-trained foundation model capable of replacing specialized baselines across a vast array of tasks. Crucially, in contrast to previous atmospheric foundation models, we achieve this without any task-specific fine-tuning. To learn a robust, task-agnostic prior of the atmosphere, we pre-train WIND with a self-supervised video reconstruction objective, utilizing an unconditional video diffusion model to iteratively reconstruct atmospheric dynamics from a noisy state. At inference, we frame diverse domain-specific problems strictly as inverse problems and solve them via posterior sampling. This unified approach allows us to tackle highly relevant weather and climate problems, including probabilistic forecasting, spatial and temporal downscaling, reconstruction of spatial fields from sparse observations and enforcing global dry air mass conservation. We further demonstrate how WIND can be applied to explore extreme weather events under prescribed out-of-distribution thermodynamic perturbations. By combining generative video modeling with inverse problem solving, WIND offers a computationally efficient alternative for AI-based atmospheric modeling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Generative deep learning improves reconstruction of global historical climate records

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change relies on historical instrumental data, yet observations from the early 20th century are sparse, fragmented, and uncertain. Conventional reconstructions rely on disparate statistical interpolation, which tends to smooth local features and create unphysical artifacts, often leading to an underestimation of intrinsic variability and extremes. While recent machine learning approaches have improved reconstruction accuracy, they remain confined to purely spatial inpainting of coarse-resolution fields. Here, we present a unified, probabilistic generative deep learning framework that overcomes these limitations and reveals previously unresolved historical climate variability back to 1850. Leveraging a learned generative prior of Earth system dynamics, our model performs probabilistic inference to estimate spatiotemporally consistent historical temperature and precipitation fields from sparse observations. Our approach preserves the higher-order statistics of climate dynamics, transforming reconstruction into a robust uncertainty-aware assessment. We demonstrate that our reconstruction mitigates the smoothing effects inherent in widely used historical reference products, including those underlying IPCC assessments, especially regarding extreme weather events. Notably, we uncover higher early 20th-century global warming levels compared to existing reconstructions, primarily driven by more pronounced polar warming, with mean Arctic warming trends exceeding established benchmarks by 0.15--0.29C per decade for 1900--1980. Conversely, for the modern era, our reconstruction indicates that the broad Arctic warming trend is likely overestimated in recent assessments, yet explicitly resolves previously unrecognized intense, localized hotspots in the Barents Sea and Northeastern Greenland.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

Estimating the Resilience of Non-Stationary Systems

A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong seasonal forcing, which complicates the estimation of their resilience to external perturbations. Here, we introduce a new method to account for non-stationarity in estimating resilience for diverse synthetic and real-world data sets via a regression-based formulation of the Langevin Equation. Our method does not require extensive data pre-processing, is robust to gaps in the data record, and does not require regular time sampling. We further show that our method can incorporate time-varying data uncertainties, recover uncertainty bounds in stability estimates, and can be natively extended to examine spatial systems. Our method is a drop-in replacement for widely-used autocorrelation-based resilience estimates, and can be widely applied across Earth system components.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2026

Extrapolation from historical data cannot reliably predict the time of a potential AMOC collapse

Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen [Nature Communications, 2023] (DD23 hereafter) propose a statistical framework to estimate the timing of a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) based on extrapolating information from observed sea-surface temperature (SST) variability. By fitting a stochastic one-dimensional fold-bifurcation model to an SST-based fingerprint of the AMOC using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), they conclude that a collapse is most likely to occur in the middle of the 21st century, with a reported 95% confidence interval covering the time span from 2037 to 2109. Given the profound implications of such a claim for both climate and society, it is essential to thoroughly test the robustness of this result, to critically assess the underlying assumptions and uncertainties, and to estimate the extent to which the reported confidence interval reflects the true limits of current knowledge. Here we examine the sensitivity of DD23's results and argue that four types of uncertainty are insufficiently explored in their analysis: (i) structural uncertainty associated with the assumed low-order bifurcation model, (ii) statistical uncertainty in their model fit, (iii) uncertainty in the representativeness of SST-based fingerprints as proxies for the high-dimensional AMOC dynamics, and (iv) uncertainty in the underlying data, arising from non-stationary observational coverage and dataset preprocessing. Using synthetic experiments and a systematic analysis of alternative fingerprints and observational products, we show that the tipping times estimated by DD23 are highly sensitive to the uncertainties listed above, and extend several millennia into the future when these uncertainties are thoroughly propagated.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

A Regime Shift in Atlantic Surface Currents Reveals a Step-like Decline of the Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly understood. Here we identify a previously unrecognized basin scale phase of Atlantic surface circulation, termed the Atlantic Convergence Divergence Mode (ACDM), characterized by a convergence divergence pattern in the North Atlantic and coherent meridional flows in the South Atlantic. We show that the ACDM experienced a pronounced regime shift in 2009, marked by weakened vertical water exchange and reduced meridional transport. This transition closely coincides with direct RAPID MOCHA AMOC observations and is driven by AMOC modulated multicale forcing: a low frequency oceanic thermal reorganization that preconditions the system, and episodic atmospheric shocks that trigger the shift. By identifying the ACDM variability as a sensitive and physically grounded proxy for interannual AMOC fluctuations, we reveal that the observed 2009 shift signifies a nonlinear, step like weakening of AMOC that triggered a fundamental basin scale reorganization of Atlantic surface currents. Our results offer a dynamical explanation for the AMOC's recent decline and demonstrate its inherently nonlinear nature, highlighting the need to account for step like transitions in assessing its stability and future evolution.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

NeuralCrop: Combining physics and machine learning for improved crop yield projections

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are crucial to project the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and assess associated risks for food security. Despite decades of development, state-of-the-art GGCMs retain substantial uncertainties stemming from process representations. Recently, machine learning approaches trained on observational data provide alternatives in crop yield projections. However, these models have not demonstrated improved performance over traditional GGCMs and are not suitable for projecting crop yields under a changing climate due to their poor out-of-distribution generalization. Here we introduce NeuralCrop, a differentiable hybrid GGCM that combines the strengths of an advanced process-based GGCM, resolving important processes explicitly, with data-driven machine learning components. NeuralCrop is first trained to emulate a competitive GGCM before it is fine-tuned on observational data. We show that NeuralCrop produces projections with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art GGCMs across site-level and large-scale crop simulations. NeuralCrop can accurately project the interannual yield variability in European wheat regions and the US Corn Belt. Capturing yield anomalies is essential for developing adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. NeuralCrop can more accurately reproduce yield anomalies across various climatic conditions, with particularly notable improvements under drought extremes. For large-scale, long-term simulations, our approach is orders of magnitude more computationally efficient. Our results show that end-to-end hybrid crop modelling offers more reliable yield projections that are essential for food risk assessments under climate change and intensifying extreme weather events.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Statistical warning indicators for abrupt transitions in dynamical systems with slow periodic forcing

There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals commonly rely on manifestations of critical slowing down. However, we still need additional development for the underlying theory for critical transitions in non-autonomous systems. This extension is relevant for natural systems, whose behaviour often emerges from seasonal periodic forcing. In this study, we systematically investigate the feasibility of anticipating the termination of oscillatory behavior in a bistable system with slow periodic forcing. In this setting, existing approaches of estimating linear characteristics of the return map fail in practical scenarios due to the unfavourable time-scale separation. Instead, we propose two statistical indicators for the anticipation of critical transitions in the periodic behaviour: (i) conventional early warning indicators, such as increasing variance and autocorrelation, evaluated across system cycles, and (ii) indicators derived from the phase of the seasonal forcing. By statistically comparing their predictive performance, we find that phase-based indicators provide the strongest early warning capability. Our results offer guidance for the detection of critical transitions in periodically forced systems and, more broadly, systematically extend early-warning signs towards non-autonomous dynamical systems.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

Targeted Calibration to Adjust Stability Biases in Complex Dynamical System Models

Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic gradient-based parameter optimization is not feasible because such models are typically not differentiable. This is especially problematic in cases where the models describe highly nonlinear and possibly abrupt dynamics, where sensitivity to parameter changes is high. Components of Earth's climate system, such as the North Atlantic Overturning Circulation or the polar ice sheets, are at risk of undergoing critical transitions in response to anthropogenic climate change. Concerns have been raised that these Earth system components are too stable in state-of-the-art models. In my presentation, we will see examples how new scenario simulations allow studying the possibility and the consequences of tipping events in Earth system models. Also, we will discuss a method for efficient, systematic, and objective calibration of dynamical complex system models, targeted at adjusting system stability. Given a number of physical or observational constraints, the method can efficiently adjust stability biases in a range of complex system models and help reveal potentially hidden instabilities, with important implications for Earth system modelling.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Decadal sink-source shifts of forest aboveground carbon since 1988

Forest ecosystems are vital to the global carbon cycle, yet their long-term aboveground carbon (AGC) dynamics remain uncertain. Here, we integrate multi-source satellite observations with probabilistic deep learning models to reconstruct a harmonized, uncertainty-aware global forest AGC record from 1988 to 2021 at 0.25-deg. We find that, although global forests sequestered 6.2 PgC, moist tropical and boreal forests have progressively transitioned toward carbon sources since the early 2000s. This shift coincides with a strengthening negative correlation between tropical AGC variability and atmospheric CO2 growth rates (r = -0.63 in 2011-2021), suggesting tropical forests increasingly modulate the global carbon cycle. Notably, in the Brazilian Amazon, the contribution of intact forests to the year-to-year variations in AGC losses increased from 33% in the 1990s to 76% in the 2010s, surpassing that of deforested areas (from 60% to 13%). Our findings highlight the vulnerability of carbon stocks in key biomes and provide a benchmark to track emerging sink-source shifts under anthropogenic climate change.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

Conditional diffusion models for downscaling and bias correction of Earth system model precipitation

Climate change exacerbates extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and flooding. As these events cause severe socioeconomic damage, accurate high-resolution simulation of precipitation is imperative. However, existing Earth System Models (ESMs) struggle to resolve small-scale dynamics and suffer from biases. Traditional statistical bias correction and downscaling methods fall short in improving spatial structure, while recent deep learning methods lack controllability and suffer from unstable training. Here, we propose a machine learning framework for simultaneous bias correction and downscaling. We first map observational and ESM data to a shared embedding space, where both are unbiased towards each other, and then train a conditional diffusion model to reverse the mapping. Only observational data is used for the training, so that the diffusion model can be employed to correct and downscale any ESM field without need for retraining. Our approach ensures statistical fidelity and preserves spatial patterns larger than a chosen spatial correction scale. We demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing statistical and deep learning methods especially regarding extreme events.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

Chaotic Kramers' Law: Hasselmann's Program and AMOC Tipping

In bistable dynamical systems driven by Wiener processes, the widely used Kramers' law relates the strength of the noise forcing to the average time it takes to see a noise-induced transition from one attractor to the other. We extend this law to bistable systems forced by fast chaotic dynamics, which we argue is in some cases a more realistic modeling approach than unbounded noise forcing. Transitions similar to the noise-driven case can only occur if the amplitude of the chaotic forcing is large enough. If this is the case, in our numerical example - a reduced-order model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - we observe the chaotic Kramers' law to hold even when the chaotic forcing is far from the stochastic limit. We discuss the limitations of the chaotic Kramers' law, how to address the numerical issues associated with the timescale separation, and give a possible explanation for the dynamics of recently found AMOC collapses and recoveries in complex climate models.

nlin.CD↗