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arXiv · 2508.14139

The Statistical Validation of Innovation Lens

Giacomo Radaelli·Jonah Lynch
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Abstract

Information overload and the rapid pace of scientific advancement make it increasingly difficult to evaluate and allocate resources to new research proposals. Is there a structure to scientific discovery that could inform such decisions? We present statistical evidence for such structure, by training a classifier that successfully predicts high-citation research papers between 2010-2024 in the Computer Science, Physics, and PubMed domains.

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Giacomo Radaelli, Jonah Lynch. 2025-08-19. The Statistical Validation of Innovation Lens. https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14139

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