StefaLand: An Efficient Geoscience Foundation Model That Improves Dynamic Land-Surface Predictions

Abstract

Managing natural resources and mitigating risks from floods, droughts, wildfires, and landslides require models that can accurately predict climate-driven land-surface responses. Traditional models often struggle with spatial generalization because they are trained or calibrated on limited observations and can degrade under concept drift. Recently proposed vision foundation models trained on satellite imagery demand massive compute, and they are not designed for dynamic land surface prediction tasks. We introduce StefaLand, a generative spatiotemporal Earth representation learning model centered on learning cross-domain interactions to suppress overfitting. StefaLand demonstrates especially strong spatial generalization on five datasets across four important tasks: streamflow, soil moisture, soil composition and landslides, compared to previous state-of-the-art methods. The domain-inspired design choices include a location-aware masked autoencoder that fuses static and time-series inputs, an attribute-based rather than image-based representation that drastically reduces compute demands, and residual fine-tuning adapters that strengthen knowledge transfer across tasks. StefaLand can be pretrained and finetuned on commonly available academic compute resources, yet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art supervised learning baselines, fine-tuned vision foundation models and commercially available embeddings, highlighting the previously overlooked value of cross-domain interactions and providing assistance to data-poor regions of the world.