Research on Metro Transportation Flow Prediction Based on the STL-GRU Combined Model

Zijie Zhou; Huichen Ma

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arXiv · 2509.18130

Research on Metro Transportation Flow Prediction Based on the STL-GRU Combined Model

Zijie Zhou·Huichen Ma

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Abstract

In the metro intelligent transportation system, accurate transfer passenger flow prediction is a key link in optimizing operation plans and improving transportation efficiency. To further improve the theory of metro internal transfer passenger flow prediction and provide more reliable support for intelligent operation decisions, this paper innovatively proposes a metro transfer passenger flow prediction model that integrates the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU).In practical application, the model first relies on the deep learning library Keras to complete the construction and training of the GRU model, laying the foundation for subsequent prediction; then preprocesses the original metro card swiping data, uses the graph-based depth-first search algorithm to identify passengers' travel paths, and further constructs the transfer passenger flow time series; subsequently adopts the STL time series decomposition algorithm to decompose the constructed transfer passenger flow time series into trend component, periodic component and residual component, and uses the 3σ principle to eliminate and fill the outliers in the residual component, and finally completes the transfer passenger flow prediction.Taking the transfer passenger flow data of a certain metro station as the research sample, the validity of the model is verified. The results show that compared with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and the combined model of STL time series decomposition method and Long Short-Term Memory (STL-LSTM), the STL-GRU combined prediction model significantly improves the prediction accuracy of transfer passenger flow on weekdays (excluding Fridays), Fridays and rest days, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the prediction results reduced by at least 2.3, 1.36 and 6.42 percentage points respectively.

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BibTeX RIS

Zijie Zhou, Huichen Ma. 2025-09-12. Research on Metro Transportation Flow Prediction Based on the STL-GRU Combined Model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.18130

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