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arXiv · 2509.19406

TimeMosaic: Temporal Heterogeneity Guided Time Series Forecasting via Adaptive Granularity Patch and Segment-wise Decoding

Kuiye Ding·Fanda Fan·Chunyi Hou·Zheya Wang·Lei Wang·Zhengxin Yang·Jianfeng Zhan
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Abstract

Multivariate time series forecasting is essential in domains such as finance, transportation, climate, and energy. However, existing patch-based methods typically adopt fixed-length segmentation, overlooking the heterogeneity of local temporal dynamics and the decoding heterogeneity of forecasting. Such designs lose details in information-dense regions, introduce redundancy in stable segments, and fail to capture the distinct complexities of short-term and long-term horizons. We propose TimeMosaic, a forecasting framework that aims to address temporal heterogeneity. TimeMosaic employs adaptive patch embedding to dynamically adjust granularity according to local information density, balancing motif reuse with structural clarity while preserving temporal continuity. In addition, it introduces segment-wise decoding that treats each prediction horizon as a related subtask and adapts to horizon-specific difficulty and information requirements, rather than applying a single uniform decoder. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that TimeMosaic delivers consistent improvements over existing methods, and our model trained on the large-scale corpus with 321 billion observations achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art TSFMs.

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Kuiye Ding, Fanda Fan, Chunyi Hou, Zheya Wang, Lei Wang, Zhengxin Yang, Jianfeng Zhan. 2026-01-05. TimeMosaic: Temporal Heterogeneity Guided Time Series Forecasting via Adaptive Granularity Patch and Segment-wise Decoding. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.19406

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