Emergent evaluation hubs in a decentralizing large language model ecosystem

Abstract

Large language models are proliferating, and so are the benchmarks that serve as their common yardsticks. We ask how the agglomeration patterns of these two layers compare: do they evolve in tandem or diverge? Drawing on two curated proxies for the ecosystem, the Stanford Foundation-Model Ecosystem Graph and the Evidently AI benchmark registry, we find complementary but contrasting dynamics. Model creation has broadened across countries and organizations and diversified in modality, licensing, and access. Benchmark influence, by contrast, displays centralizing patterns: in the inferred benchmark-author-institution network, the top 15% of nodes account for over 80% of high-betweenness paths, three countries produce 83% of benchmark outputs, and the global Gini for inferred benchmark authority reaches 0.89. An agent-based simulation highlights three mechanisms: higher entry of new benchmarks reduces concentration; rapid inflows can temporarily complicate coordination in evaluation; and stronger penalties against over-fitting have limited effect. Taken together, these results suggest that concentrated benchmark influence functions as coordination infrastructure that supports standardization, comparability, and reproducibility amid rising heterogeneity in model production, while also introducing trade-offs such as path dependence, selective visibility, and diminishing discriminative power as leaderboards saturate.