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arXiv · 2511.05420

ProDER: A Continual Learning Approach for Fault Prediction in Evolving Smart Grids

Emad Efatinasab·Nahal Azadi·Davide Dalle Pezze·Gian Antonio Susto·Chuadhry Mujeeb Ahmed·Mirco Rampazzo
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Abstract

As smart grids evolve to meet growing energy demands and modern operational challenges, the ability to accurately predict faults becomes increasingly critical. However, existing AI-based fault prediction models struggle to ensure reliability in evolving environments where they are required to adapt to new fault types and operational zones. In this paper, we propose a continual learning (CL) framework in the smart grid context to evolve the model together with the environment. We design four realistic evaluation scenarios grounded in class-incremental and domain-incremental learning to emulate evolving grid conditions. We further introduce Prototype-based Dark Experience Replay (ProDER), a unified replay-based approach that integrates prototype-based feature regularization, logit distillation, and a prototype-guided replay memory. ProDER achieves the best performance among the tested CL techniques, with accuracy drops of up to 0.032 for fault type prediction and up to 0.033 for fault zone prediction across different scenarios. These results demonstrate the practicality of resource-efficient continual learning system that reduces the computational and storage burden of maintaining intelligent fault prediction services in evolving energy infrastructure.

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Emad Efatinasab, Nahal Azadi, Davide Dalle Pezze, Gian Antonio Susto, Chuadhry Mujeeb Ahmed, Mirco Rampazzo. 2026-07-20. ProDER: A Continual Learning Approach for Fault Prediction in Evolving Smart Grids. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.05420

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