Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning Framework for Remaining Useful Life Prediction in Turbofan Engines with Learned Aleatoric Uncertainty

Abstract

Accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction coupled with uncertainty quantification remains a critical challenge in aerospace prognostics. This research introduces a novel uncertainty-aware deep learning framework that learns aleatoric uncertainty directly through probabilistic modeling, an approach unexplored in existing CMAPSS-based literature. Our hierarchical architecture integrates multi-scale Inception blocks for temporal pattern extraction, bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks for sequential modeling, and a dual-level attention mechanism operating simultaneously on sensor and temporal dimensions. The innovation lies in the Bayesian output layer that predicts both mean RUL and variance, enabling the model to learn data-inherent uncertainty. Comprehensive preprocessing employs condition-aware clustering, wavelet denoising, and intelligent feature selection. Experimental validation on NASA CMAPSS benchmarks (FD001-FD004) demonstrates competitive overall performance with RMSE values of 16.22, 19.29, 16.84, and 19.98 respectively. Remarkably, our framework achieves breakthrough critical zone performance (RUL <= 30 cycles) with RMSE of 5.14, 6.89, 5.27, and 7.16, representing 25-40 percent improvements over conventional approaches and establishing new benchmarks for safety-critical predictions. The learned uncertainty provides well-calibrated 95 percent confidence intervals with coverage ranging from 93.5 percent to 95.2 percent, enabling risk-aware maintenance scheduling previously unattainable in CMAPSS literature.