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arXiv · 2512.05402

Smart Timing for Mining: A Deep Learning Framework for Bitcoin Hardware ROI Prediction

Sithumi Wickramasinghe·Bikramjit Das·Dorien Herremans
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Abstract

Bitcoin mining hardware acquisition requires strategic timing due to volatile markets, rapid technological obsolescence, and protocol-driven revenue cycles. Despite mining's evolution into a capital-intensive industry, there is little guidance on when to purchase new Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) hardware, and no prior computational frameworks address this decision problem. We address this gap by formulating hardware acquisition as a time series classification task, predicting whether purchasing ASIC machines yields profitable (Return on Investment (ROI) >= 1), marginal (0 < ROI < 1), or unprofitable (ROI <= 0) returns within one year. We propose MineROI-Net, an open-source Transformer-based architecture designed to capture multi-scale temporal patterns in mining profitability. Evaluated on data from 20 ASIC miners released between 2015 and 2024 across diverse market regimes, MineROI-Net outperforms recurrent, convolutional, and attention-based baselines, achieving 83.2% accuracy and 83.5% macro F1-score. The model demonstrates strong economic relevance, achieving 97.8% precision in detecting unprofitable periods and 81.5% precision in detecting profitable ones, while avoiding misclassifying profitable scenarios as unprofitable and vice versa. These results indicate that MineROI-Net offers a practical, data-driven tool for timing mining hardware acquisitions, potentially reducing financial risk in capital-intensive mining operations.

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Sithumi Wickramasinghe, Bikramjit Das, Dorien Herremans. 2026-05-25. Smart Timing for Mining: A Deep Learning Framework for Bitcoin Hardware ROI Prediction. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05402

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