NeuralCrop: Combining physics and machine learning for improved crop yield projections

Abstract

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are crucial to project the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and assess associated risks for food security. Despite decades of development, state-of-the-art GGCMs retain substantial uncertainties stemming from process representations. Recently, machine learning approaches trained on observational data provide alternatives in crop yield projections. However, these models have not demonstrated improved performance over traditional GGCMs and are not suitable for projecting crop yields under a changing climate due to their poor out-of-distribution generalization. Here we introduce NeuralCrop, a differentiable hybrid GGCM that combines the strengths of an advanced process-based GGCM, resolving important processes explicitly, with data-driven machine learning components. NeuralCrop is first trained to emulate a competitive GGCM before it is fine-tuned on observational data. We show that NeuralCrop produces projections with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art GGCMs across site-level and large-scale crop simulations. NeuralCrop can accurately project the interannual yield variability in European wheat regions and the US Corn Belt. Capturing yield anomalies is essential for developing adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. NeuralCrop can more accurately reproduce yield anomalies across various climatic conditions, with particularly notable improvements under drought extremes. For large-scale, long-term simulations, our approach is orders of magnitude more computationally efficient. Our results show that end-to-end hybrid crop modelling offers more reliable yield projections that are essential for food risk assessments under climate change and intensifying extreme weather events.