Physics-Encoded Inverse Modeling for Arctic Snow Depth Estimation

Abstract

Accurate estimation of unobserved quantities in time-varying inverse problems remains challenging when observations are sparse and only indirectly related to the target variable. In Arctic climate applications, snow depth over sea ice is not directly available in commonly used reanalysis products and must instead be inferred from related physical and environmental variables. To address this challenge, we introduce Physics-Encoded Inverse Modeling (PhysE-Inv), a framework that combines sequential deep learning with a physics-encoded parameter estimation module for inverse estimation under sparse observational conditions. PhysE-Inv uses an LSTM encoder-decoder to capture temporal dependencies and incorporates contrastive learning to improve the consistency of learned representations. The framework learns structured physics-encoded parameters that are integrated with observational inputs to estimate snow depth proxies. Under the proposed proxy evaluation framework, PhysE-Inv outperforms all evaluated baselines, achieving an average MSE reduction of 24.4\% compared with baseline models and a 17.3\% improvement over the strongest baseline under the parameter estimation setting. These results demonstrate the potential of physics-encoded modeling approaches for estimating unobserved quantities in data-scarce domains where direct observations are limited.