Characterizing and Predicting Wildfire Evacuation Behavior: A Dual-Stage ML Approach

Sazzad Bin Bashar Polock; Anandi Dutta; Subasish Das

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arXiv · 2603.02223

Characterizing and Predicting Wildfire Evacuation Behavior: A Dual-Stage ML Approach

Sazzad Bin Bashar Polock·Anandi Dutta·Subasish Das

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Abstract

Wildfire evacuation behavior is highly variable and influenced by complex interactions among household resources, preparedness, and situational cues. Using a large-scale MTurk survey of residents in California, Colorado, and Oregon, this study integrates unsupervised and supervised machine learning methods to uncover latent behavioral typologies and predict key evacuation outcomes. Multiple Correspondence Analysis, K-Modes clustering, and Latent Class Analysis reveal consistent subgroups differentiated by vehicle access, disaster planning, technological resources, pet ownership, and residential stability. Complementary supervised models show that transportation mode can be predicted with high reliability from household characteristics, whereas evacuation timing remains difficult to classify due to its dependence on dynamic, real-time fire conditions. These findings advance data-driven understanding of wildfire evacuation behavior and demonstrate how machine learning can support targeted preparedness strategies, resource allocation, and equitable emergency planning.

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Sazzad Bin Bashar Polock, Anandi Dutta, Subasish Das. 2026-02-10. Characterizing and Predicting Wildfire Evacuation Behavior: A Dual-Stage ML Approach. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.02223

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