Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with Clustered Data

Claudia Noack; Tomasz Olma; Christoph Rothe

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arXiv · 2603.18870

Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with Clustered Data

Claudia Noack·Tomasz Olma·Christoph Rothe

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Abstract

Clustered sampling is prevalent in empirical regression discontinuity (RD) designs, but it has not received much attention in the theoretical literature. In this paper, we introduce a general model-based framework for such settings and derive high-level conditions under which the standard local linear RD estimator is asymptotically normal. We verify that our high-level assumptions hold across a wide range of empirical designs, including settings of growing cluster sizes. We further show that clustered standard errors that are currently used in practice can be either inconsistent or overly conservative in finite samples. To address these issues, we propose a novel nearest-neighbor-type variance estimator and illustrate its properties in a diverse set of empirical applications.

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Claudia Noack, Tomasz Olma, Christoph Rothe. 2026-03-19. Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with Clustered Data. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.18870

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