Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2604.08874

An Auditable Policy-Simulation Framework for Student Dropout in Intervention-Free Data

Rafael da Silva·Jeff Eicher·Gregory Longo
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This study proposes a temporal modeling framework with a counterfactual policy-simulation layer for student dropout in higher education, using LMS engagement data and administrative withdrawal records. Dropout is operationalized as a time-to-event outcome at the enrollment level; weekly risk is modeled in discrete time via penalized, class-balanced logistic regression over person--period rows. Under a late-event temporal holdout, the model attains row-level AUCs of 0.8350 (train) and 0.8405 (test), with aggregate calibration acceptable but sparsely supported in the highest-risk bins. Ablation analyses indicate performance is sensitive to feature set composition, underscoring the role of temporal engagement signals. A scenario-indexed policy layer produces survival contrasts $ΔS(T)$ under an explicit trigger/schedule contract: positive contrasts are confined to the shock branch ($T_{\rm policy}=18$: 0.0102, 0.0260, 0.0819), while the mechanism-aware branch is negative ($ΔS_{\rm mech}(18)=-0.0078$, $ΔS_{\rm mech}(38)=-0.0134$). A subgroup analysis by gender quantifies scenario-induced survival gaps via bootstrap; contrasts are directionally stable but small. Results are not causally identified; they demonstrate the framework's capacity for internal structural scenario comparison under observational data constraints.

Explore related subjects

cs.LGcs.AI

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Rafael da Silva, Jeff Eicher, Gregory Longo. 2026-07-21. An Auditable Policy-Simulation Framework for Student Dropout in Intervention-Free Data. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.08874

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

A Probabilistic Approach for Model Alignment with Human Comparisons

A growing trend involves integrating human knowledge into learning frameworks, leveraging subtle human feedback to refine AI models. While these approaches have shown promising results in practice, the theoretical understanding of when and why such approaches are effective remains limited. This work takes steps toward developing a theoretical framework for analyzing the conditions under which human comparisons can enhance the traditional supervised learning process. Specifically, this paper studies the effective use of noisy-labeled data and human comparison data to address challenges arising from noisy environment and high-dimensional models. We propose a two-stage "Supervised Learning+Learning from Human Feedback" (SL+LHF) framework that connects machine learning with human feedback through a probabilistic bisection approach. The two-stage framework first learns low-dimensional representations from noisy-labeled data via an SL procedure and then uses human comparisons to improve the model alignment. To examine the efficacy of the alignment phase, we introduce a concept, termed the "label-noise-to-comparison-accuracy" (LNCA) ratio. This paper identifies from a theoretical perspective the conditions under which the "SL+LHF" framework outperforms the pure SL approach; we then leverage this LNCA ratio to highlight the advantage of incorporating human evaluators in reducing sample complexity. We validate the framework on a real high-dimensional crowdfunding-prediction task: under a fixed query budget, trading labels for comparisons improves accuracy precisely when labels are scarce, and the findings hold when the evaluator is replaced by real large language models. A study conducted via Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) further validates the model primitives.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

An Initial Introduction to Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has exploded in popularity in recent years. While numerous approaches have been developed, they can be broadly categorized into three main types: centralized training and execution (CTE), centralized training for decentralized execution (CTDE), and decentralized training and execution (DTE). CTE methods assume centralization during training and execution (e.g., with fast, free, and perfect communication) and have the most information during execution. CTDE methods are the most common, as they leverage centralized information during training while enabling decentralized execution -- using only information available to that agent during execution. Decentralized training and execution methods make the fewest assumptions and are often simple to implement. This text is an introduction to cooperative MARL -- MARL in which all agents share a single, joint reward. It is meant to explain the setting, basic concepts, and common methods for the CTE, CTDE, and DTE settings. It does not cover all work in cooperative MARL as the area is quite extensive. I have included work that I believe is important for understanding the main concepts in the area and apologize to those that I have omitted. Topics include simple applications of single-agent methods to CTE as well as some more scalable methods that exploit the multi-agent structure, independent Q-learning and policy gradient methods and their extensions, as well as value function factorization methods including the well-known VDN, QMIX, and QPLEX approaches, and centralized critic methods including MADDPG, COMA, and MAPPO. I also discuss common misconceptions, the relationship between different approaches, and some open questions.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TIDE: Temporal Incremental Draft Engine for Self-Improving LLM Inference

Speculative decoding can substantially accelerate LLM inference, but realizing its benefits in practice is challenging due to evolving workloads. We present TIDE (Temporal Incremental Draft Engine), a serving-engine-native framework that integrates online draft adaptation directly into high-performance LLM inference systems. TIDE reuses target model's intermediate hidden states generated during inference as training signals for draft adaptation, thereby avoiding additional target model computation and serving-time overhead. It employs adaptive runtime control to activate speculation and draft model training only when beneficial. TIDE exploits heterogeneous clusters by mapping inference and training to appropriate GPU classes. Across diverse real-world workloads, TIDE achieves up to 1.66$\times$ throughput over no-speculation baselines while recovering performance on misaligned workloads where static draft models degrade throughput. TIDE also reduces training time by up to 3.02$\times$ and storage requirements by 24$\times$ compared to existing draft training approaches, and improves system throughput by up to 1.22$\times$ on heterogeneous GPU clusters.

cs.LG↗