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arXiv · 2604.10614

Kinetic models of opinion-driven epidemic dynamics modulated by graphons

Andrea Bondesan·Jacopo Borsotti·Mattia Fontana
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Abstract

We introduce new kinetic equations to describe epidemics' spread while accounting for individuals' opinions on protective behaviors. Opinion exchanges occur on a social network represented by a graphon, whose choice strongly influences the dynamics and leads to the emergence of complex nonlinear phenomena, like the creation of opinion leaders or the spontaneous formation of epidemic waves. Starting from individual-based interactions, we derive a nonlinear nonlocal Fokker-Planck model involving reaction terms and degenerate drift-diffusion operators, which depend on the underlying graphon. We establish rigorous results of convergence to equilibrium in $L^1$ space, via relative entropy estimates, and in homogeneous Sobolev spaces $\dot{H}^{-s}$, $s \in \big(\frac{1}{2}, 1\big)$, using Fourier-based techniques. We then design a structure-preserving scheme for the coupled opinion-epidemiological system, highlighting graphon effects: opinion leaders supporting protective behaviors limit disease spread, whereas influenceable individuals may shift toward opposing views, worsening epidemics. At last, we introduce a time-dependent quantity analogous to the effective reproduction number, whose oscillations are linked with the formation of epidemic waves. Notably, these waves are not induced by an explicit external forcing but they naturally emerge from the interactions between agents, depending on the connectivity level prescribed by the graphon.

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Andrea Bondesan, Jacopo Borsotti, Mattia Fontana. 2026-07-12. Kinetic models of opinion-driven epidemic dynamics modulated by graphons. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.10614

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