Concurrent Criterion Validation of a Validity Screen for LLM Confidence Signals via Selective Prediction

Jon-Paul Cacioli

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arXiv · 2604.17716

Concurrent Criterion Validation of a Validity Screen for LLM Confidence Signals via Selective Prediction

Jon-Paul Cacioli

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Abstract

The validity screen (Cacioli, 2026d, 2026e) classifies LLM confidence signals as Valid, Indeterminate, or Invalid. We test whether these classifications predict selective prediction performance. Twenty frontier LLMs from seven families were evaluated on 524 items across six cognitive tracks. Valid models show mean Type 2 AUROC = .624 (SD = .048). Invalid models show mean AUROC = .357 (SD = .231). Cohen's d = 2.81, p = .002. The tiers order monotonically: Invalid (.357) < Indeterminate (.554) < Valid (.624). Split-half cross-validation yields median d = 1.77, P(d > 0) = 1.0 across 1,000 splits. The three-tier classification accounts for 47% of the variance in AUROC. DeepSeek-R1 drops from 85.3% accuracy at full coverage to 11.3% at 10% coverage. The screen predicts the criterion. For selective prediction, the screen matters.

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Jon-Paul Cacioli. 2026-04-20. Concurrent Criterion Validation of a Validity Screen for LLM Confidence Signals via Selective Prediction. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.17716

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