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arXiv · 2605.17730

L-Drive: Beyond a Single Mapping-Latent Context Drives Time Series Forecasting

Fan Zhang·Shijun Chen·Hua Wang
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Abstract

Mainstream methods for multivariate time-series forecasting largely follow the Direct-Mapping paradigm. They learn a unified mapping from history to the future in the observation space to fit value-level dependencies. However, real-world systems often undergo distribution shifts and regime changes. In such cases, a unified mapping can exhibit response lag around turning points, causing error accumulation within the switching window and reducing forecasting reliability. To address this issue, we propose L-Drive, a change-aware forecasting framework. L-Drive introduces a Latent-Context, to explicitly characterize high-level dynamics evolving over time, and uses gating to modulate increment representations. This provides more timely change cues and improves adaptation to changing segments. In addition, it incorporates patch-shared relative positional basis functions to strengthen intra-segment structural modeling and reduce overfitting caused by absolute-position memorization. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of L-Drive and show a better overall trade-off between forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.

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Fan Zhang, Shijun Chen, Hua Wang. 2026-05-25. L-Drive: Beyond a Single Mapping-Latent Context Drives Time Series Forecasting. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17730

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