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arXiv · 2605.24576

Associations between echocardiographic traits and AI-ECG predictions of heart failure

Elias Stenhede·Eivind Bjørkan Orstad·Torbjørn Omland·Henrik Schirmer·Arian Ranjbar
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Abstract

Artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiography (AI-ECG) can detect heart failure (HF), including disease not captured by left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), but the cardiac phenotypes underlying model predictions remain unclear. We therefore investigated whether AI-ECG-predicted HF risk aligns with established echocardiographic measures of myocardial dysfunction, remodelling, and filling pressures. We retrospectively analysed ECG and echocardiography data from 8147 patients who underwent both examinations within three days at Akershus University Hospital between 1 January 2023 and 1 June 2025. A previously validated AI-ECG model for HF detection was applied to all ECGs. Spearman's rank correlation $ρ$ quantified associations between echocardiographic parameters and AI-ECG risk. Subgroup analyses were performed by sex and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). External validation included 36,286 ECG-echocardiography pairs from Columbia University Irving Medical Center. Global longitudinal strain (GLS) showed the strongest correlation ($ρ$=0.57), followed by mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) ($ρ$=-0.49) and LVEF ($ρ$=-0.45). In patients with LVEF>50%, correlations remained substantial for GLS, MAPSE, and diastolic-related parameters. Volumetric left ventricular indices correlated less strongly in women, whereas diastolic indices showed stronger correlations in women than in men. Physiological validation showed that AI-ECG HF risk predictions align primarily with measures of systolic function, particularly global longitudinal strain, while also capturing diastolic-related abnormalities in patients with preserved LVEF. This approach may improve clinical interpretability and identify opportunities for model refinement.

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Elias Stenhede, Eivind Bjørkan Orstad, Torbjørn Omland, Henrik Schirmer, Arian Ranjbar. 2026-05-23. Associations between echocardiographic traits and AI-ECG predictions of heart failure. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.24576

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