Can AI Refute Economic Theory? Evidence from Beyond the Knowledge Cutoff

Alexis Akira Toda

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arXiv · 2606.05383

Can AI Refute Economic Theory? Evidence from Beyond the Knowledge Cutoff

Alexis Akira Toda

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Abstract

Can artificial intelligence (AI) refute economic theory? I document experiments in which I asked several AI models (Gemini, Refine, Claude, and ChatGPT) to check the correctness of four published papers in economic theory, each containing an error that I helped identify or correct. ChatGPT Pro performed best, occasionally constructing counterexamples and corrected proofs, while other models fared worse. However, no model located a true error without substantial human guidance, and data contamination complicates interpretation. I argue that a competent human paired with a frontier model can outperform current peer review, but AI cannot yet refute economic theory on its own.

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Alexis Akira Toda. 2026-06-03. Can AI Refute Economic Theory? Evidence from Beyond the Knowledge Cutoff. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05383

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