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arXiv · 2606.23509

Variance or Standard Deviation? Shell Geometry and Global-Scale Priors in High-Dimensional Shrinkage

Wayne Yuan Gao·Zhiheng You
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Abstract

We study how the choice of default prior for a common Gaussian scale affects high-dimensional shrinkage risk, highlighting the role played by high-dimensional geometry. Formally, we consider a high-dimensional setting in which the near-zero behavior of the common scale prior has first-order consequences for shrinkage risk, and show that priors that are flat on the variance and those flat on the standard deviation allocate markedly different mass near the zero-scale boundary, leading to distinct shrinkage behavior and informing principled default prior selection. Specifically, under a radial-power benchmark, we establish that the SD-flat benchmark has a one-unit asymptotic risk advantage near the origin, crosses over in the critical regime, and is second-order equivalent to the variance-flat benchmark for strong signals. Proper single global-scale hyperpriors and bounded coordinate-multiplier mixtures inherit these limits through the near-zero exponent of their SD-scale density. For heavier-tailed or sparse priors, that exponent still classifies the common global-scale component, while local-scale tails, model-size priors, or allocation priors can also affect risk.

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Wayne Yuan Gao, Zhiheng You. 2026-06-22. Variance or Standard Deviation? Shell Geometry and Global-Scale Priors in High-Dimensional Shrinkage. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.23509

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