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arXiv · 2606.28190

The Remittance Blueprint: Data-driven Intelligence for Sri Lanka

Dhinanjaya Fernando·Dinura Ginige·Kalana Lakshan·Chanupa Gurusinghe·Lasana Pahanga·Subavarshana Arumugam·Sandeepa Weerasekara·Sandareka Wickramanayake·Nisansa de Silva
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Abstract

This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025). Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictively, multivariate machine learning models outperform traditional univariate approaches; Ridge Regression achieves a 73.8% accuracy improvement over SARIMA (Annualized RMSE: USD 494.8 Mn). The optimized framework projects 2026 remittances at USD 9,001 million under stable conditions. These findings highlight the structural dependence of remittances on global economies, emphasizing the need for robust exchange rate policies, skilled migration, and formal financial channels to enhance long-term economic resilience.

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Dhinanjaya Fernando, Dinura Ginige, Kalana Lakshan, Chanupa Gurusinghe, Lasana Pahanga, Subavarshana Arumugam, Sandeepa Weerasekara, Sandareka Wickramanayake, Nisansa de Silva. 2026-06-30. The Remittance Blueprint: Data-driven Intelligence for Sri Lanka. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.28190

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