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arXiv · 2607.03669

Split-Session Cluster GARCH for Overnight and Intraday Returns: The Role of Tail Heterogeneity

Xinxian Chen·Peter Reinhard Hansen·Chen Tong
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Abstract

We propose the Split-Session Cluster GARCH model for heavy-tailed multivariate dependence among asset returns decomposed into overnight and intraday components. The model uses convolution-$t$ distributions to allow tail behavior to differ across clusters defined by trading sessions and, within each session, by economic sectors. It also accommodates block-structured conditional correlation matrices, preserving parsimony and scalability in high-dimensional settings. The resulting likelihood remains tractable and yields a score-driven specification for dynamic correlations. We apply the model to U.S. equity returns in six-asset and 100-asset applications. The results reveal pronounced tail heterogeneity between overnight and intraday returns. Model comparisons show that session-specific tail parameters substantially improve fit relative to a common multivariate-$t$ specification, while sector-level tail partitioning delivers additional gains concentrated mainly in the overnight component. In the 100-asset application, asset-level tail heterogeneity delivers the strongest out-of-sample likelihood and global minimum-variance (GMV) portfolio performance.

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Xinxian Chen, Peter Reinhard Hansen, Chen Tong. 2026-07-04. Split-Session Cluster GARCH for Overnight and Intraday Returns: The Role of Tail Heterogeneity. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03669

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